High Wind and Strong Wind in California, January 5 to 6, 2003

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
240 PM PST SUN JAN 5 2003

STRONG EPAC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE DISTRICT. N-NE P-GRADS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
MIXING TO DISSIPATE FOG/STRATUS IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL SJ
VALLEY...HOWEVER INVERSION CONTS TO HANG TOUGH ALONG THE EAST SIDE
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST.

CENTRAL/SOUTH VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC
WITH AFTERNOON CEILINGS VARYING FROM NEAR 500 FEET TO ABOVE 1K.
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN INVERSION REMAINING THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE EAST SIDE...AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FEET
SHOULD HAVE BEST POTENTIAL TO BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE AS LOWER
LEVELS COOL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO MAINTAIN
SOME CLEARING ALONG THE WEST SIDE AND REDUCE COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH
END AS GRADS TIGHTEN BETWEEN 06-12Z MON. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY...WILL REFRAIN
FROM DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AREAS OF
NIGHT/MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THRU TUES MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE MIXING WHERE REMAIN WEAKEST.

ELSEWHERE...12Z PROGS PROJECT CENTER OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN UT TO MOVE S-SW TO WESTERN AZ TONIGHT...
THEN TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER MONDAY. OFFSHORE GRADS WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
PRESSURES RISE TO NEAR 1038 MB. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL SWING NE AS
LOW MOVES INTO THE SW STATES TONIGHT...H85 FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS THRU 12Z MON WHICH SHOULD KEEP SPEEDS BELOW WAD
LEVELS. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS IN
THE INDIAN WELLS CANYON AS HIGH-RES X-SECTIONS INDICATE WINDS
COUPLED THRU H3 WITH STRONG DVM APPROACHING 20 MICROBARS/SEC.
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES AS LOW
RETROGRADES TO NORTHERN BAJA WITH FLOW ALOFT FINALLY VEERING SE TUES
AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN WED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW/NORCAL. THOUGH NOTED DIFFERENCES EXIST IN 12Z PROGS
REGARDING TRACK AND STRENGTH...IMPACT ON THE CWA WILL BE MINIMAL AS
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.  JSN

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAKES FOR A FORECAST QUESTIONABLE IN THE
DETAILS...BUT SUBSTANTIVELY THE SAME HOLISTICALLY FOR OUR DISTRICT.
12Z GFS HAS DONE AN ABOUT FACE WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE PROGGED ACROSS EXTREME NORCAL THURSDAY. ITS 00Z VERSION
HAD DEPICTED WEAK RIDGING IN ITS PLACE. OTHER MODEL SUITES GENERALLY
SHOW SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE AREA...BUT DIFFER
GREATLY IN POSITIONING. IN ANY CASE...THIS IMPULSE IS EITHER
TOO WEAK OR TOO DISTANT TO HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
LOCALLY...EXCEPT TO PERHAPS REDUCE THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF SAN
JOAQUIN TULE FOG. OTHERWISE...H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AND A LACK OF POTENT DISTURBANCES RIDING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC INDICATE THAT A DRY FORECAST IS MOST REASONABLE.  AGREE
COMPLETELY WITH HPC/S DISCUSSION OF TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OUT OF THE
GATE TO DISMISS THE PROSPECT OF WRN CONUS RIDGE HOLDING ITS OWN
THROUGH DAY 7.   BURGER

.HNX...NONE.

CAZ089>099-061400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
545 AM PST SUN JAN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT REGIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT REGIONS.  PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

TLM

CAZ095>099-061200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
330 PM PST SUN JAN 5 2003

...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT...THEN COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER RIDGES...AND THROUGH EAST-WEST ORIENTED
PASSES...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 58 THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI PASS.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

PERSONS TRAVELING ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS OR DESERTS...OR
INTO THE HIGH SIERRA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN
INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS. OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/HANFORD.

JSN