High Wind in California, December 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2003

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT STORM MOVING THRU THE CWA PRODUCING SOME
RATHER HEAVY RAINS ALONG A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION ALIGNED ALONG
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SWINGING OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY REGION AT THIS HOUR...WITH THE CITY HAVING SEEN AROUND 2/3 OF AN
INCH IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIMILAR RAIN TOTALS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD. S WINDS AT SFO GUSTED AS
HIGH AS 53 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND HAVE NOW SETTLED DOWN
OUT OF THE W AT 15-25 MPH. THE FRONT IS IN THE SJC VICINITY AS OF
330 AM WITH THE CONVECTION INCREASING IN A LINE FROM THERE SSWWD INTO
MONTEREY BAY. THE UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR VANCOUVER BC AND
THERE IS A TROF COMING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM DOWN THE WA COAST THEN
ALONG 130W OFF NRN CA. SO FAR HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN OUR CWA
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STRIKES UP NEAR THE OREGON COAST RECENTLY.
EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION TO REMAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A MORE SCATTERED TYPE OF SHOWER REGIME
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY UNTIL THE TROF NEAR 130W PASSES THRU THE DISTRICT LATE IN
THE DAY. POPS WILL ABRUPTLY END BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE TROF AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 12Z THIS MORNING AS ANY WINDS CLIMBING INTO THAT CRITERIA
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THE FRONT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SRN
COUNTIES THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND NOT LIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE FURTHER N. COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT
SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FT ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY...SO
THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD GET A DUSTING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP.

A FEW QUIET DAYS IN STORE MON THRU WED AS WE COME UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RAIN WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
SLOWED DOWN A BIT BY MODEL CONSENSUS...REACHING THE N BAY THU
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE DISTRICT BY THU EVENING
AND PERSISTING INTO FRI. THAT TROF AXIS SWINGS TO OUR E...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER RIDGE...SETTING UP A DRY WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 TDA...HIGH SURF ADVY...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND MRY BAY.
       SCA...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND SFO AND MRY BAYS.

&&

NEWMAN