Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 26, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF COLORADO SHIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TOMORROW. CWA REMAINS UNDER A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. PW VALUES HOVERING NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA ATTM. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH PWS INCREASING BY A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. APPROACHING JET STREAK TO MOVE ACROSS SE AZ TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE ALREADY FIRING OFF CONVECTION OVER WHITE MTNS AND RIM AREAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA COULD LINGER THRU THE NIGHT AS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STREAK CROSSES THE CWA. TOMORROW AND MONDAY
LOOK MORE UNSTABLE AS INVERTED TROF MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ.
MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AND LIS FOR SUNDAY. FOCUS
AREAS TOMORROW INCLUDE THE RIM AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL BE OF CONCERN.

EXTENDED...SEE NOTHING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT WARRANTS ANY
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT DAILY MONSOON FCST. UPPER HIGH STAYS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WITH MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION CONTINUING. DF

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        056/080 057/079 054/076      030 060 030 060 040 050
WINSLOW          067/094 068/090 065/087      020 040 030 040 030 030
PRESCOTT         065/087 066/085 064/082      030 050 040 060 030 040
PAGE             070/096 072/093 069/090      020 020 030 040 030 040
WINDOW ROCK      060/090 058/086 055/083      030 040 040 060 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 070/096 068/092 065/089      020 030 030 050 030 030
COTTONWOOD       073/098 074/096 072/093      020 040 030 050 020 030
GRAND CANYON     055/082 056/081 053/078      020 050 020 050 030 040
GREER            052/076 053/075 050/072      050 060 050 060 040 060
HEBER            057/085 058/084 055/081      040 060 040 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE       056/078 057/077 054/074      020 040 020 050 030 040
NAVAJO N.M.      064/090 062/086 059/083      020 030 030 050 030 030
PAYSON           066/092 067/090 065/087      030 020 040 060 030 040
SEDONA           071/096 072/094 070/091      020 040 030 050 020 030
SELIGMAN         058/090 059/088 057/085      020 040 030 040 020 030
SHOW LOW         064/086 065/085 062/082      030 050 030 060 040 050
ST. JOHNS        062/088 063/084 060/081      030 050 040 050 040 040
WUPATKI N.M.     070/096 071/092 068/089      020 050 030 050 030 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-270200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THIS STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM AND VERY MOISTURE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.