Heat in Kansas, July 26 to 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE HEAT TODAY AND THEN CHANCES OF
RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 105 TO 108 RANGE. HOWEVER...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF ENOUGH TO PREVENT A PROBLEM WITH HEAT BUILD UP SO WILL NOT GO
WITH AN ADVISORY. PLUS...EXPECTING SUNDAY TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN
THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.  STILL
SHOULD BE ON THE HOT SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS MAY TEMPER THE HEAT
JUST A BIT.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF FRONT INTO REGION ON SUNDAY.
GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAXES WHICH
MAKES ITS QPF PATTERNS A BIT SUSPECT.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA
VERSION OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF FRONT...WHICH WOULD PUT THE
FRONT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONT STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT POST FRONTAL...MORE LINED UP
WITH THE 850 FRONT...SO WILL NOT END PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AS THE FLOW REMAINS WEAK...THUS SHOULD BE MORE OF
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS AT THIS POINT.

PC

235 PM...
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF LATE WEEKEND FROPA
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.  HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE ETA
THIS TIME.  NOT SURE THERE WILL BE A VERY BIG PUSH ON THE FRONT SAT
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA...AND MAY NOT
PUSH THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. SO FOR SAT NIGHT HAVE TRIMMED OFF THE
POPS TO JUST THE VERY NORTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES.  ANY MOVEMENT
THAT THE FRONT DOES MAKE ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLOW WITH WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPS.  HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
THIS.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SFC FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 36 AND I70 BY 00Z MON. GFS TAKES IT BACK NORTH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE ETA TAKES IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT MAY
VERY WELL JUST HOVER AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO HIGHER FWC GUID...WHICH CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS.  HOT SPOT SHOULD BE NEAR KSTJ WITH H8 +25C TEMPS
EXPECTED.  DEWPOINTS RISE TO OR JUST UNDER 70 DEG...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS JUST BELOW THE OPPRESSIVE/DISGUSTING RANGE.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PAST 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE FRONT
LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST
OF MONDAY. HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHEST POPS
(30) ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND MOST OF
THE ENERGY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. READINGS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LVQ/NRR

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 108 RANGE IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...INCLUDING THE KANSAS
CITY...ST JOSEPH AND MARYVILLE AREAS.  IN NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S...AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE 98 TO 103 RANGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE THREAT WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE CHANCE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36. AT THIS TIME...THE
THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PC