Hail in Arizona, August 30, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR LESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MID WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...THE TROF OVER NE AZ IS EXITING THE STATE PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A DRIER NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROF HAS
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL
SLIDE INTO AZ TOMORROW WITH RISING HGTS. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN PW FOR THE REGION
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE RIM AND WHITES LIKELY TO SEE SCT
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TO 4-CORNER AREA AND STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID WEEK. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN THRU THE PERIOD. DF

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        051/078 048/078 048/077      020 030 010 030 020 030
WINSLOW          060/089 058/089 058/088      010 020 000 020 010 020
PRESCOTT         060/087 060/087 060/086      030 030 020 030 020 030
PAGE             068/083 068/084 068/083      000 000 000 000 000 020
WINDOW ROCK      048/082 048/083 049/082      020 020 010 020 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 056/088 056/089 057/088      010 010 000 010 010 020
COTTONWOOD       066/097 065/097 065/096      030 030 020 030 010 030
GRAND CANYON     051/079 048/079 048/078      020 020 010 020 010 030
GREER            048/073 045/073 045/072      030 030 010 030 020 030
HEBER            053/083 050/083 050/082      030 030 010 030 020 040
JACOB LAKE       051/076 048/076 048/075      000 010 000 010 010 020
NAVAJO N.M.      052/082 051/083 051/082      010 010 000 010 010 020
PAYSON           060/090 060/090 060/089      030 030 020 030 010 020
SEDONA           065/094 065/094 065/093      020 030 010 030 010 030
SELIGMAN         057/088 056/088 056/087      020 020 010 020 000 020
SHOW LOW         054/083 051/083 052/081      030 030 010 030 020 030
ST. JOHNS        060/091 060/091 059/090      030 020 010 020 010 020
WUPATKI N.M.     061/091 059/091 059/090      010 020 000 020 010 020

AZZ004>018-037>040-310200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THEN MOVE OFF THE RIM TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TODAY. STORM ACTIVITY
OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY SHOULD BE LESS THAN THAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS BUT STORMS THERE MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.