1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES
TONIGHT CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SOUTH OF
PHX FILLING IN WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS STILL INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY. NORTH OF THIS VORTEX...CONVECTION IS BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE
AFTERNOON HEATING WAS OCCURRING. 18Z FGZ SOUNDING INDICATED WEAK CAP
BETWEEN GULF SURGE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND REMNANT
MIXED LAYER FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WEAK CAP CAN BE EASILY BROKEN BY
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION...THUS EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER
ALL NIGHT OVER YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AS THE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX SOUTH OF PHX MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NM.
MODELS INDICATE THAT ONCE THIS VORTEX MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
ANY MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. GFS WEAKENS THE HIGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MOVES IT OVER THE STATE FOR A POSSIBLE SLOW DRYING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF MODEL INDICATES THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE US. WILL CONTINUE MODERATE-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL A MORE CONSOLIDATED SOLUTION
EMERGES. STAUDENMAIER
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON WED THU FRI TON WED THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 054/077 051/077 053/075 040 040 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW 064/089 062/088 063/087 030 030 030 030 020 030
PRESCOTT 063/084 061/084 063/084 050 040 030 040 030 040
PAGE 072/094 068/093 071/093 020 020 020 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 056/084 052/081 051/078 030 040 030 040 020 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 065/092 060/087 059/084 030 030 020 030 020 030
COTTONWOOD 072/095 069/095 071/095 040 030 030 040 020 030
GRAND CANYON 052/081 051/080 054/076 030 030 030 030 020 030
GREER 049/072 048/072 050/070 040 050 040 050 030 060
HEBER 055/082 053/082 055/080 030 040 040 040 030 040
JACOB LAKE 053/075 051/075 053/073 020 040 030 040 030 030
NAVAJO N.M. 058/083 057/081 056/078 020 030 030 030 020 030
PAYSON 067/088 062/088 064/088 030 040 030 040 030 040
SEDONA 068/093 067/092 069/092 030 040 030 040 020 030
SELIGMAN 062/087 060/087 062/087 030 030 030 030 020 030
SHOW LOW 057/082 059/082 061/080 040 040 040 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS 063/089 059/089 060/087 030 040 030 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 068/091 063/090 064/089 030 030 030 030 020 030AZZ004>018-037>040-200200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND PHOENIX AND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LOCATIONS SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION AND ENHANCE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST. OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:26 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Supai Police Department reported that the water in normally dry Hualapai Canyon was four feet deep.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5374307.