Damaging Winds in Missouri, August 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
430 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
LEADING TO MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MISSOURI
LAKE REGION NORTHWARD TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.  CONVECTION
ALSO FIRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BUBBLE HIGH ANCHORED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST
ONLY WEAK ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL WITH ALL STORMS...BUT EXCESSIVE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...HAVE LED TO
SURFACE BASED CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG.  EXPECT THE
CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE REGION TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...
BUT STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
SO THESE WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER.  MAY SEE A SHORT BREAK
IN ACTIVITY...AS THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY DISSIPATES
IN THE 02-03Z TIMEFRAME.  INCREASING 850MB CONVERGENT...MOIST
FLOW WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCE POPS GOING ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OF A SAINT JOE TO
BETHANY LINE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL OF FORECAST AREA
LIKELY REACHING 100 DEGREE MARK.  SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP...BUT STORMS PROBABLY WONT FIRE
UNTIL AFT 19Z...SO TEMPS MAY JUST EAK UP TO 100 AHEAD OF FRONT.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF FRONT MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES
AOA 105...BUT AGAIN AM HESITANT TO BUMP TEMPS MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH RELIEF FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...
THUS KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR 100.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INFILTRATE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
COOLDOWN.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RELIEF TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

SF

415 AM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT
POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE HAS ALLOWED BAND OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE FURTHER EAST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING.

MAIN CONCERN OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT...AS AIRMASS
ACROSS REGION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ETA
SOLUTION OF SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT 850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 20S C
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT KC METRO...WHERE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PLAINS LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD. GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING META PROGS SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH
INTO NORTHERN MO THURSDAY...THUS HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA.

SEAMAN

445 PM...
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.  TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF
TODAYS WEATHER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAKING
LITTLE PROGRESS EAST.  THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THIS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THIS IN EFFECT WILL DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.  SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL FORCING IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES ONLY MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S LAST
NIGHT IN THE KANSAS CITY METRO.  WITH NIGHT TIME DEWPOINTS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN AT 80
DEGREES OR MORE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.  THEREFORE, I HAVE
UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CITY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.  AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN THREE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES OCCUR...AND NIGHT TIME
HEAT INDICES REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES.  OUTSIDE THE METROPOLITAN
AREA NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH THAT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.  THUS HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW AND
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY.

KOCH

IN THE EXTENDED...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. A BRIEF COOL PUSH
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AGAIN SATURDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE ECMWF FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO STRONG WITH
ITS SOUTHWARD COOL PUSH AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE.

STOFLET

.EAX...
KS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM FOR ZONES KS025...KSZ102.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
KSZ103>105.

HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES KSZ025...KSZ102.

HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES KSZ057...KSZ060.

MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM FOR ZONES MOZ001>007...
MOZ011>016...MOZ020.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
MOZ028>029...MOZ037.

HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ001>008...
MOZ011>016...MOZ020.

HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ017...
MOZ021>025...MOZ030>033.

HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES MOZ038>040...
MOZ043>046...MOZ053>054.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN KANSAS AND MOST OF WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY.  THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT
INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

FOSTER

KSZ025-102-MOZ001>007-011>015-020-021-200200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO
414 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 152...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DAVIESS...DE KALB...
GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...MERCER...NODAWAY...PUTNAM AND
WORTH.

IN KANSAS:

ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON...
BETHANY...MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND TRENTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

KSZ025-102-MOZ001>007-011>015-020-021-200200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED WATCH NUMBER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO
414 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 872...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DAVIESS...DE KALB...
GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...MERCER...NODAWAY...PUTNAM AND
WORTH.

IN KANSAS:

ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON...
BETHANY...MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND TRENTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MAXIMUK