Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

DAYS 1-2...

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TSTORM
CHANCES...

HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PLAYING AS THE
KICKER TO THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING
SLOWLY ENE ACROSS WESTERN NEB AT THE MOMENT. A WEAK WAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THRU COLORADO AT THE MOMENT AND
IS HELPING TO FIRE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAVE
MAY HELP TRIGGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SW KS LATER ON AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. FOR TONIGHT, A DECENT LLJ DEVELOPS WHICH MAY HELP KEEP
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE
GOING FORECAST IDEA OF HIGHER POPS NORTHERN HALF WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE. DECIDED TO KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST
ALONE FOR WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE ETA IS BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE,
COULD NOT RULE OUT CONVECTION, SO INSERTED 20 POP FOR THE EASTERN
HALF FROM 21Z ON.

FOR TEMPS, DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING GRIDS OTHER THAN
TO RAISE THURSDAYS TEMPS A DEGREE TO TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS EXTENDED IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET.  UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY
MIGRATE EAST DURING THE DAY 4 THROUGH 6 PERIODS.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE HOW THE SOLAR ENERGY MAXIMIZES DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HOTTEST SPOTS ARE.  HAVE
ADDED LOW 16 PERCENT POPS IN EAST HALF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.  KEPT FRIDAY AFTERNOON 20 POPS GOING IN SOUTHWEST
CWA AS WELL, WITH THE LEE SIDE TROUGH COMING INTO PLAY.  ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  BUT THE
GFS TAKES THE UPPER HIGH EAST OF THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BUT HAVE TO
WONDER IF THE HIGH WILL GET DISPLACED THAT QUICKLY. THE CENTURY MARK
COULD EASILY GET BROKE IF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR FULL SUN COMBINE,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND IN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WARM SPOT NEAR HAYS.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 70 98 70 99 / 30 20 20 20
GCK 67 97 67 98 / 30 20 20 00
EHA 68 98 66 97 / 20 00 00 00
LBL 69 98 67 98 / 20 20 20 00
HYS 71 98 68 98 / 30 20 20 20
P28 74 101 72 100 / 20 20 20 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

27/12

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING THAT STORMS FORMING NORTH OF A
SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO ST. JOHN LINE WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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