High Wind in Alaska, October 2, 2003

CORRECTED.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
10 PM ADT WED OCT 1 2003

ANALYSIS...THERE IS A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH A VERY ODD SHAPED 5-6 WAVE PATTERN.
THERE IS A MONDO UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. A MAJOR UPPER
LOW COMPLEX IS FROM NEAR ANADYR WAY DOWN TO HAWAII WITH A HUGE FETCH
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH WARM AIR UP TO
THE NORTH SLOPE. THE 250 MB JET STARTS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND GOES TO BARROW WITH A CORE SPEED OF 150 KNOTS. NO
WONDER THAT A RAIN GAGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET (JOHNSON
RIVER) GOT 12 INCHES IN 30 HOURS. THE SURFACE LOWS ARE FILLING WITH A
984 MB 00Z NEAR 51/160W AND THE SECOND ONE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AT
984 MB WITH A MONDO WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE UNDER THE JET IS FROM SITKINAK TO A WAVE AROUND 35/150W. EX-
TYPHOON KOPPU PERSISTS AT 973 MB NEAR 48/167E AT 00Z BUT A TRIPLE
POINT LOW GUESSED AT 994 MB HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT NEAR 44/179W.
THE MAX WIND THIS MORNING AT MCHUGH CREEK IN TURNAGAIN ARM WAS 88
MPH. IT STILL SMELLS LIKE PINEAPPLES OUTSIDE.

FORECASTS...THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS ALL INSIST THROUGH A COUPLE OF
RUNS THAT THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. WITH THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MAJOR UPPER LOWS MAKES
THIS IS HARD TO ACCEPT...BUT WHEN SEVERAL HEMISPHERIC MODELS SAY THE
SAME THING ON LONG WAVE FEATURES YOU BETTER GO WITH IT. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL KILL THE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL
GIVE THE SEWARD AREA AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN
BEFORE DEPARTING. HERES HOW THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL GO: THE OLD
MAIN LOW WILL DIE OUT NEAR SAND POINT BY 12Z FRI. THE LOW THAT WAS
KOPPU WILL MOVE EAST ALONG 48N OR SO WEAKENING TO 978 MB NEAR 48/163W
12Z SAT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF BUT MAINTAINS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z ETA
GETS REAL PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE WAVE NEAR 35/150W 00Z TODAY TO THE
CENTRAL GULF 988 MB 12Z SAT AND SOMEHAT LIKE THE 00Z UKMET AT 994 MB
WHICH PUTS IT AT MIDDLETON ISLAND THEN. WE ARE INCLINED TO ACCEPT
THIS ETA/UKMET SOLUTION BECAUSE OF REALLY GOOD SATELLITE INDICATORS
NEAR THE WAVE THROUGH 05Z THIS EVENING. HERE GOES.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING SEWARD AREA 125. WIND ADVISORY 101 111 125
         141 AND 191.
MARINE...GALES 2B 3B 12B 13.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC OCT 03