High Wind in Alaska, December 4, 2003

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1045 AM AST THU DEC 4 2003

.SHORT RANGE...A 972 MB LOW NEAR 51N 138W WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 53N 141W BY THIS
EVENING. THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE LOW
THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT
AND FRI AND WILL LINGER AROUND 53N 141W AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ON FRI MAY SPIN UP A 984 MB LOW
JUST WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO
JUST WEST OF PAKW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GOOD OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL START DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONSET OF PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE MAY BE
DELAYED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT PRECIP
IN ZONE 29 TO START OUT AS SNOW NEAR HYDER. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WEAKENS AND GOES ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING. WILL AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
SOME OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS INTO TONIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO
DROP BELOW ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD.

OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRI WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
GRADIENT WEAKENING ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD. THE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF WILL SPREAD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF.

.LONG RANGE...THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO BE NEAR THE
WASHINGTON COAST BY SATURDAY. A UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD AND
FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE OUTSIDE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND OUTSIDE COAST. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN DOMINATE SO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ZONES 17-19. THE WINDS OVER
THESE ZONES WILL REMAIN ON THE WINDY SIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WILL
SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE SO
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF AND RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL PERSIST.

THE LOW IN THE BEARING THIS WEEKEND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO BE
NEAR BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL FORM A LEE SIDE
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY...AND A WEAK TROFT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.

A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY BUT THERE
WILL SOME OFFSHORE GRADIENT SO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL HAVE A CHANCE WHILE THE OUTSIDE WILL HAVE A
LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN. BY THAT NIGHT MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
BE IN RAIN AND THIS WILL UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A HIGH WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TRY TO DRY OUT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 28 AND 28
         WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT ZONE 20
MARINE...STORMS PKZ041 PKZ036
         GALES REMAINDER OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS
         GALES PKZ012 PKZ013 PKZ021 PKZ022 PKZ032 PKZ033 PKZ034
               PKZ035
         SCA PKZ031 PKZ011

TAR/ABJ