Damaging Wind in Wyoming, July 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
230 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002

IN THE SHORT TERM AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF
OF THE AREA. SEEMS TO BE A DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF UPPER
CIRCULATION. STORMS ALREADY GOING IN N UT/S ID AND THIS AREA WILL
EXPAND OVER W WY AND INTO N/CENT WY DURING THE EVE. UPPER JET MERGE
OVER NRN WY ALSO A CONCERN THAT COULD AID IN STORM STRENGTH. SO POPS
HIGHEST IN THE N AND LESSER IN THE SOUTH. ON TUE MODELS WISH TO BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN WSW ALOFT. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL
DEWPOINTS DROP IN THE ZONES. APPEARS A BOUNDARY WILL EXIST IN CENT
WY WHICH WOULD BE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM WANT TO KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCT POPS IN MANY PLACES AND KEEP SW ZONES DRY. BREEZY AS
WELL IN FAVORED AREAS FROM KRKS TO KCPR. HIGH TEMPS TUE SOME 4 TO 8
DEGREES HIGHER THAN TDY. LOW POPS IN THE N AND E FOR TUE NT WITH DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WED LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO TUE WITH BOUNDARY NOT
MOVING MUCH. THUS WILL TREND POPS ALONG THE SAME AREAS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS. ON THU 12Z AVN WANTS TO BRING A DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. SO SCATTERED POPS ALL
AREAS SEEM BEST FOR NOW. A TAD COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
THE FRI THROUGH MON PERIOD FEATURES A WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FORECAST OF POPS IS BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS DURING THE
PERIOD.

.RIW...NONE.

AR