Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, July 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL LOW...COOL POOL REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AL
WESTERN GA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE GULF
FETCH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROVIDES COOL POOL INSTABILITY TO DRIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM: LATEST VIS AND 88D SHOWING SCT TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM AHN TO ATL TO CSG WITH FEW ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHEAST
MTNS.  AMPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES (TWO DISTINCT MESOSCALE VORTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN APPLCHNS AND SOUTHERN GA) ALONGSIDE LATE AFTERNOON HEATING
SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL
COLD POOL AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH STRONGER
STORMS...THIS IN LINE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK.  WILL USE PERSISTENCE
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SCT AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BEST CHANCE PEAKING WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS WISE...WILL KEEP WITH THE
SAME WITH FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS...MORE TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY...THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

LONG TERM: SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT OR RETURNS NORTH AS WARM FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  EITHER/OR EXPECT WARM SECTOR
SCT CONVECTION WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO REGION.  DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN LINE WITH GFS
ENS.

ATL  71 89 71 88 /  30 40 30 50
AHN  70 89 70 88 /  30 40 30 50
GVL  70 88 69 87 /  30 40 30 50
RMG  70 89 70 88 /  30 40 30 50
CSG  72 91 72 90 /  30 50 30 50
MCN  70 91 70 90 /  30 50 30 50

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

JCD

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-222300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
239 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL, STRONG WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES OF 2500 TO 3500...AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 5.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES.
&&

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.