Tornadoes and Hail in Wisconsin, September 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT MON SEP 2 2002

SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUED FOR WESTERN TIER COUNTIES TIL 8PM.  COLD FRONT NOW
INTO WESTERN WI. LINE OF STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR. IN AN AREA WHERE CURRENT ANALYSES SHOWS AXIS OF
NEG 11 LIS. POTENT NEG TILTED TROF NOW LIFTING THROUGH MN. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN ABUNDANT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN HELD BACK. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS STARTING TO WORK WAY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENT WARNINGS HITTING LARGE HAIL OVER NORTHEAST MN...
WESTERN WI.

MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE DEVELOPS WITH
SIG MID LEVEL WINDS.  BUFFY SOUNDINGS SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE...THOUGH SOME SPEED SHEER PRESENT TO PROVIDE THREAT FOR ROTATING
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF LINE. LINE SHOULD BE OUT OF
OUR AREA BY MID EVENING AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW ON TUE.

NO CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS...WITH LARGE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL US.

.GRB...NONE.

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WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-022030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT MON SEP 2 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...
THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LAKESHORE IN EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
4:00 PM AND 5:00 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
BY 9:00 PM THIS EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 2:00 PM.

TE
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