Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, September 2, 2002

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
150 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2002

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE CENTERS ON LINGERING POP
THREAT THIS MORNING AND WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF FRONT REMAINDER OF DAY...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
06Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME WESTERN
MANITOBA PROVINCE WITH ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FURTHER UPSTREAM PARENT COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST SASK PROVINCE TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST PRESSURE TENDENCY FIELDS SUGGESTS GOOD RISE/FALL
COUPLE ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE TYPE MAINLY HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY (LITTLE IF ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES) IN VICINITY OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

.FORECAST DETAILS...
FINALLY LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
FINALLY KICK PARENT COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING. REVIEW OF
FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH FROPA...PER INVERTED V SOUNDING (STEEP LAPSE RATES 850-700MB
LAYER) FOR AREAS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EAST EARLY TODAY. IN
WAKE OF FRONT GOOD NORTHWESTERLY PUNCH OF DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. TIGHTENING NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND ADIABATIC MIXING LAYER TO ALMOST
700MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
FEEL WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS
TO ABATE AND DECOUPLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS RIDGES INTO THE DAKOTAS. FRIENDLY CONFINES OF HIGH SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE AND SLIP AWAY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD DEEPENING NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PACKAGE PENDING NO REAL SURPRISES WITH
NEW MRF.

.FGF...NONE.

BERG