Hail in West Virginia, May 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT
AFTN TRWS DVLPMT ABOUT WHERE IT WAS ADVERTISED.
ISOLATED DOWNPOURS STILL ARND THIS EVENING OVR MTNS AND SE OH.
BUT DECIDED AGAINST A SMALL SCALE FLOOD WATCH SINCE MOST
OF AREA WAS DRY PREVIOUS TO THIS EVENT. A FEW EXCEPTIONS OVR MTNS
WHERE CONVECTION FIRED ON MON. WILL HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS.

SOME CONVECTION MAY STILL COME W OFF MTNS THIS EVENING.

CONCERNED ABOUT LEAVING MTNS DRY ON WED...BUT SINCE POPS WERE
PULLED OUT PREVIOUSLY-WILL NOT REINSERT NOW.  TEMPS WARM A DEG OR
SO 700-500 MB- SO A BIT MORE STABLE.  LEFT 30 POP IN WRN ZONES.

LEFT POPS AT 20 PCT FOR WED NGT AND THU - WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW.

EXTENDED PDS...FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH MOISTURE
STILL AVAILABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECT SOME SHOWER
AND TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THE MAIN JET
AND ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE PCPN.  HAVE LEFT 30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS PER 12AVN THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL
AROUND 6Z.  SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN SAT AND SHOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO
RETURN.  MODELS BEGIN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING WHEN THE FRONT
RETURNS NORTH.  AVN WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY.
IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THAT TO HAPPEN...PER HPC GUIDANCE.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...BUT IF THE AVNS TIMING IS RIGHT
COULD SEE SHOWERS BREAK OUT WITH OVERRUNNING AND ALSO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROLLING OVER THE TOP OF THE 500 MB RIDGE.

SFC WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PUSHING THE
SFC FRONT SOUTH BACK INTO THE CWA.  WITH FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CWA KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  GUIDANCE
LOOKS A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MEX BRINGS WARM AIR
BACK WITH WARM FRONT.  HAVE CUT TEMPS ON THOSE DAYS A FEW DEGREES.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/ KTB/ESS

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-281745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED PERRY
COUNTY...MAINLY NORTH OF NEW LEXINGTON...DURING MIDDAY.

A BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...WILL HELP TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.  THE RAIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER WHENEVER LIGHTNING IS
NEAR...OR THUNDER IS HEARD.

ANY SHOWER COULD DUMP AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.
OF COURSE...THIS WOULD CAUSE THE USUAL PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AND LIMIT ROAD VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS.

IT WOULD TAKE SEVERAL SHOWERS OR STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
STREAM BASIN TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.  THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL PATTERNS.

END / KTB

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-281920-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED PERRY COUNTY...MAINLY NORTH OF
NEW LEXINGTON...DURING MIDDAY.

A BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...HELPED TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SCIOTO VALLEY.
THESE SHOWERS MOVED INTO VINTON COUNTY NEAR MCARTHUR...BETWEEN 1 AND
2 OCLOCK.

THE RAIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER
WHENEVER LIGHTNING IS NEAR...OR THUNDER IS HEARD.

ANY SHOWER COULD DUMP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.
OF COURSE...THIS WOULD CAUSE THE PONDING OF WATER IN THE USUAL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AND LIMIT ROAD VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS.

SINCE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OHIO HAS BEEN DRY LATELY...IT WOULD TAKE
MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME STREAM
BASIN TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL PATTERNS.

END / KTB