Wildfire in West Virginia, March 10 to 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
242 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2002

SHORT TERM: WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 30 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS.
GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS... AND
EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. PLAN TO KEEP SCA UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT WINDS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT... AND
WITH WINDS WEAKENING WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MOS TEMPS APPEAR A
BIT HIGH... AND PLAN TO UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO STRAY
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ETA/AVN
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING OF FEATURES... WITH ETA ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AVN INDICATING SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.. AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON BOTH ETA AND AVN TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
FOR THE SW ZONES. WILL MENTION RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN
AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY NOT BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH AT SCOURING OUT
COLD AIR FROM VALLEYS BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MARGRAF

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RAIN EVENT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. AVN AND ETA DIFFER QUITE A BIT BY
TUE EVE. AVN HAS A DEEPER AND MORE NEG TILTD TROF IN THE 500 FLOW.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLOWER AND DEEPER SFC LOW. ETA HAS THE SFC LOW AT
THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BY TUE EVE...WHILE THE SLOWER AVN HAS IT
LAGGING IN SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY POPS FOR TUE... BUT EXPAND A CHC OF RAIN INTO TUE NIGHT.
THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING TUE NIGHT AND LEAVE A PCLDY WED. AVN
WOULD HAVE IT BREEZY WITH A STRNG LOW JUST EAST OF THE COAST.

THERE IS EQUAL DIVERGENCE OF OPINION WITH THE LONG RNGE MODLS. THE
EURO AND UKMET BUILD A HIGH DOWN THE EAST COAST WITH A WEAK FRONT
OVR THE AREA...WHILE THE MRF KEEPS A WEAKER HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH A WK SFC FRONT E/W THRU PA. WILL KEEP THU AND SUN PCLDY WITH A
20 POP...WHILE FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE MCLDY WITH 30 POP CHC OF RAIN.

STRONG

.LWX...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...
MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...SCA TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.