High Wind in North Carolina, March 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
635 AM EST SUN MAR 10 2002

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AFTER COORD CALL WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NC NRN
MOUNTAINS AND GRAYSON COUNTY.  EARLY MORNING RELEASE INDICATING 50
TO 60 KTS FROM 850 TO 800 MBS. SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE  MIXING DOWN THESE WINDS THIS MORNING.

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HAVE COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ON SEVERAL THINGS
INCLUDING FIRE THREAT.  HAVE DECIDED THAT FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH TO AVOID ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG...BUT WILL WORD FWF STRONGLY
FOR WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA ATTM WITH CAA UNDERWAY. LARGEST
PRESSURE RISES WILL HAVE OCCURED BY DAYBREAK...BUT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND H8 WINDS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 50KT RANGE THROUGH THE
MORNING WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM WHERE
IT IS ALREADY FLYING. ETA/AVN HAS 18Z H8 TEMPS RANGING FROM -8 IN
THE WEST TO -4/-5 IN THE EAST.  BASED ON THIS WILL GO BELOW MAV
MAXES AND LEAN CLOSER TO FWC DESPITE DOWNSLOPING.  AIRMASS UPSTREAM
QUITE DRY SO NOTHING WORSE THAN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SECONDARY FROPA IN THE WEST.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY AND WINDS DIMINISH VERY LATE
WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE 20S IN THE EAST.

MONDAY HIGH SLIPS TO THE EAST WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED SO ETA/AVN MAY BE OVERDOING RETURN OF
LATE DAY RH.  TEMPS AFTER A CHILLY START TO RECOVER TO NEAR MAV
NIMBERS.

AFTER THAT WEATHER GETS MILDLY INTERESTING.  VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE ZIPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHILE MAKING
A RUN AT TRYING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
COLDER WITH THE ETA THE COLDEST.  ETA SOUNDINGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  CURRENTLY JUST GOING RAIN THE ZONES AND WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN WEST.  ETA SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST.  MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH
WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERE SO DRY.

FCSTID = 8
ROA   52  30  51  34 /   0   0   0  60
LYH   55  27  49  35 /   0   0   0  50
DAN   57  29  50  37 /   0   0   0  50
BLF   37  19  48  34 /   0   0   0  60
LWB   38  16  47  31 /   0   0   0  60
BCB   41  18  48  32 /   0   0   0  60
TNB   39  18  49  32 /   0   0   0  60

.RNK...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES NCZ001>004...
NCZ018>020.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES VAZ007...VAZ009>020...
VAZ022>024...VAZ032>035...VAZ043.

WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES WVZ042>045.

NOGUEIRA