Heavy Snow in Washington, January 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
747 PM PST SAT JAN 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW NEAR FORKS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THIS WILL ENTRAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS PUSHING COLD DRY AIR SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTH
INTERIOR. THE BOUNDARY WHERE THESE TWO SYSTEMS MEET IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX PATTERN AS STATIONARY UPR/SFC STACKED LOWS OFF
THE WASHINGTON CST MODIFIYING AS AIR MASS TAKES ON MARINE
CHARACTERISTICS. CIRCULATION EJECTING THIS MODIFIED AIR NWD INTO MUCH
OF PGTSND THROUGH SUN MORNING. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS HAVE RISEN 3-6
DEGREES DURING PAST 3 HOURS WITH SN CHG TO RA ALG CST AND SRN PGTSND.
VORT MAX ALG WA CST AT 02Z MOVG NE WITH MORE CONVECTIVE SHSN MOVG
INTO PGTSND SND THIS EVE. BHD THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TIL SUN.
ALREADY AN INCRG NE FLOW OUT OF THE FRAZER RVR VALLEY FORCING DRIER
COOL AIR INTO N INTERIOR. INTERESTING BOUNDARY SETTING UP BTWN THESE
TWO VERY DIFFERENT AIR MASSES THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO DROP A NARROW
BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW WHERE THE 2 PATTERNS CONVERGE. XPCT THIS
BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE N INTERIOR ZONE AND WILL ADD A
LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS TO SN IN THAT AREA THRU SUN. AS STACKED LOWS SAG
SOUTH SUN...NE FLOW ALF AND AT SFC FORCING THIS CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY
SWD THROUGH PGTSND THRU SUN NIGHT.  VERY CHALLENGING FCST WITH THIS
BOUNDARY YET BELIEVE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE SOURCE FOR MOST PCPN DURING
THE NXT 24-36 HR PD. TRANSLATING THOSE THOUGHTS TO FCST... WILL ADD
SOME FOG TO FCST FOR AREAS FM PGTSND SWD AND TO THE CST... AND
DOWNPLAY ACCUMULATIONS A NOTCH FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHWS RIVERS NEAR
CREST AND WILL ADJUST FLS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING AHD...NICE COLD NLY
FLOW SETTING UP FOR MON/TUE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
DROPPING S OVR CWA TUE. DO NOT LIKE AVN SFC SOLN THAT HAS HI PRES TO
THE S YET COLD AIR OVR B.C. AND ERN WA. LIKE LOCATION OF COLD AIR BUT
CERTAINLY WOULD RATHER SEE SOME KIND OF LEE LOW OFF VRISL...WHICH I
THINK MDLS MAY ENTERTAIN IN NXT RUN OR TWO. NO CHGS TO XTNDD.
QUERCIAGROSSA.

UIL 9730 SEA 8851 OLM 9751

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET...COAST...STRAIT.
       SNOW ADVISORY...ALL AREAS ABOVE 200 FEET.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.

WAC061-270942-

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1042 PM PST SAT JAN 26 2002

TIME(PST)  CITY LOCATION           STATE   EVENT/SPOTTER/REMARKS
           COUNTY LOCATION

1042 PM    SNOHOMISH                  WA   SNOW
01/26/02   SNOHOMISH                       SNOHOMISH 5
                                           2 PAST HOUR
                                           SNOWING HARD