Heavy Snow in Nevada, January 27 to 28, 2002

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST SUN JAN 27 2002

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY... WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT
IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.

.DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE NOT DONE THAT WELL IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THE
LAST 24 HOURS AND IS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.  HAVE
EXPECTED THE ONSET OF PRECIP EARLIER WITH UPPER LOW PROGRESSING
FASTER.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP THIS TROUGH DOWN THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND TURN IT INTO A CUT OFF LOW ON TUESDAY.  THIS WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE ENERGY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SWINGS FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA.  STILL ENOUGH WEAK VORTICITY WILL
BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE CWA TO WARRANT POPS INTO TUESDAY.

A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL.  LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  AS OF 2 AM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO LKN AND PRECIP HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW.

INTERESTING IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS BEING CAUGHT BY THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS WITH A
DISTINCT ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.

WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WINDS AS MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER NEVADA WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEEP
WINDS UP INTO TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

EKO...NONE.

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