Hail and Damaging Wind in Virginia, June 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 01 2002

ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN WV/VA ARE PUSHING ESE ALONG THE MOIST
AMS ASSOC WITH THE STATIONARY FNT. CNVTN AIDED BY MINOR UPR LVL
SHTWV AS SEEN ON WV PIX...AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROF THRU CNTRL VA.
EXPCT THAT MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL KEEP CHC FOR WIDELY SCT TSTMS FOR SW HALF OF CWA
FOR TNT.

FOR SUN THE SFC TROF PUSHES E AND THE STATIONARY FNT SAGS S AS A
COLD FNT...BUT COLDER AIR REMAINS FURTHER NORTH BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. SUN EXPCTD TO BE DRY AS FNT PUSHES S INTO NC. WILL HAVE WRN
COUNTIES WITH 20 PCT POP SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON WHEN FNT EXPCTD TO LIFT
BACK N AS A WRMFNT. MOS GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM
TSTDY...AND BELIEVE THAT MOS NUMBERS ARE TOO COLD FOR MON. HAVE
PUSHED TEMPS UP AT LEAST 2 CATEGORIES...BASED ON THE BELIEF THAT THE
WARM FNT WILL PUSH N OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY MON RATHER THAN STALL
OUT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS THE MODELS INDICATE. GIVEN THE FLOW PTN
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS DVLPMNT DURG THE PD. LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHC FOR MCS WOULD BE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE ANY MCS WOULD BE JUST N OF THE CWA...BUT WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE FNT IT COULD DVLP FURTHER S AND
EFFECT THE NW CWA ON MON EVE.

BEYOND MON WE GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NW FLOW...WITH UPR LVL
FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FNT...AND THUS VERY LITTLE MVMNT OF
THE FNT FOR THE EXTND PERIOD. WITH LITTLE FRNTL MVMNT HAVE KEPT A 20
PCT POP THRU ALL OF THE CWA THRU THU...AND THEN INCRS CHC POPS IN
THE W AS COLD FNT APPCHS THU NIGHT.

FCSTID = 09
SBY   66  86  57  81 /  10  10  10  20
OXB   67  86  57  81 /  10  10  10  20
ECG   71  90  67  87 /  20  10  10  20
ORF   70  90  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
PHF   70  92  66  86 /  10  10  10  10
AKQ   70  92  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
RIC   68  92  64  85 /  20  10  10  20
FVX   69  92  66  86 /  20  10  10  20

.AKQ...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.

ALS