Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, June 1, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2002

WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF TO MOVE LITTLE WHILE WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OVER THE PENINSULA ALLOWS SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
DEVELOP ON BOTH COAST NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT THROUGH MONDAY AS TAIL END OF MID LEVEL EAST
COAST TROUGH SETTLES DOWN THE PENINSULA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FAVORING INTERIOR CWA
WHERE LOCAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST. STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEEP CONVECTION TO ACQUIRE A SSE/SE
COMPONENT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCE OF STORMS REACHING BACK TO
ATLANTIC COAST. SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN SUN/MON...BUT WITH EVEN LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH FASTER INLAND PENETRATION AS BUILDING MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN RETURN TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.

BY MID-LATE WEEK...MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES SE OF CWA ALLOWING DEEPER
AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW TO SURGE BACK TO S/C PENINSULA. TREND
TOWARDS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALREADY ESTABLISHED IN ZFP FOR
MID/LATE WEEK. STEERING FLOW LIKELY TO FAVOR INTERIOR PENINSULA BUT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...EARLY DEVELOPMENT ALONG EAST COAST
BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL.

MARINE...GENERAL LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE
WEEK. A CHANGE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE GULF. RESULT WILL BE A
RETURN TO E/SE FLOW PATTERN...WITH WIND POSSIBLY APPROACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY AS WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT DROPS
INTO THE SE U.S. AND INCREASES THE GRADIENT.

DAB BB 068/091 070/091 070 65121
MCO BB 070/093 071/094 071 65232
MLB BB 071/090 072/090 072 6512-

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER