Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, May 29, 2002

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

AFTERNOON SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY HAS RETURNED WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
KENEDY COUNTY AT 12:30 PM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE PGF HAS
WEAKENED AND MID LVL NLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CAP TO DETERIORATE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY ALONG THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...INCREASING NORTHERLY MID LVL FLOW AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE MID/UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AND
ANY BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM RAYMONDVILLE TO ZAPATA.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF MID-UPPER LOW NOW OVER
SOUTHEAST OK AND BRING IT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY.
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PCPN ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.  DAYS 6 AND 7...MRF
DRAGS A TROUGH EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS HAVE PREVAILED OFFSHORE TODAY. THE
ONSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DISRUPTION
TONIGHT BY A POTENTIAL LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS...AS AN UPPER LOW DESCENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND THE LOW...DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO BB 074 091/074 088 071 20/30/20/20/20
HRL BB 074 092/072 089 070 20/30/20/20/20
MFE BB 075 096/076 092 071 20/30/20/20/20
RGC BB 074 097/073 095 069 20/30/20/20/20
SPI BB 078 085/077 084 076 20/30/20/20/20

SYNOPTIC...MCGUIRE.55
AVIATION-MARINE...MILLER.54
MESO...MARTINEZ.ABBOTT

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
215 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ON THURSDAY...ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK SEA BREEZE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH...NOW BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND
HOUSTON...IS MOVING SOUTH AND COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE...AND THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY.
THIS MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
2500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS
AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES SHOULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR INITIATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH TX. WIND PROFILES
WILL BE LARGELY NORTH UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT SPEED
SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE SFC TO 6 KM LAYER FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. NEAR THE
COAST...SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY PERSIST DUE TO SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND
BETTER INFLOW/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

MILLER

TXZ248>257-310100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
315 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 8
PM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ZAPATA...STARR...JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO...KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR AREA. IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM AND LIE DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY
FLAT DOWN ON THE GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MILLER

TXZ248>257-300200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...

BY 6 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF
THIS INITIAL CONVECTION WILL SOON FOLLOW...BRINGING STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. PHILO

PHILO

TXZ248>257-310100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN CANCELED.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

PHILO