Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2002

WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ADVECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY BUILD AND COLLAPSE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SHEAR INVOLVED TO SUSTAIN MORE INTENSE CELLS.

SCATTERED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WEAK AREAS OF PVA AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AFFECTS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MORNING AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH AGREEMENT THIS ROUND ON PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY SHOWS HIGH
LIKELY CATEGORY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ETA MODEL WHILE NGM AND AVN
HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES. CHANCE CATEGORY SHOULD SUFFICE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES VIA THE ETA MODEL RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE WHILE NGM
GUIDANCE A TAD WARM. SO WILL SHADE BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE NGM
AND MORE TOWARD THE ETA. OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD WARM ON THE ETA SO
WILL SHADE THOSE BACK A BIT.

REST OF THE WEEK MODELS SHOW PERIODIC PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN FINALLY DRIES
OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

LOMBARDY