Hail in Texas, May 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
228 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER
THE REGION LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS FROM HART SOUTH
TO WEST OF BROWNFIELD. CUMULUS CONGESTUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH KLBB RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST
AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S JUST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK BUT THE 0-6 KM SHEAR FORECAST BY THE
RUC MODEL INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON TO GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THE RISK OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS FOR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

TINSLEY

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125 PM CDT DISCUSSION

WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND
THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST...EXPECT N TO NE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO NIL RAIN CHANCES.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY BASED ON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHWARD DIVING UPPER JET MOVING INTO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET. COULD EITHER SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OR SIMPLY SEE NEW
STORMS FORMING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY ALOFT
INCREASES.  EITHER WAY...BELIEVE RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 20 PERCENT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS BRIEF SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER HIGH SHOULD PREDOMINATE. PLAN ON KEEPING RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY LATE MONDAY..THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS A NEW
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  IF THIS NEW TROUGH
DEVELOPS AS FORECAST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE REGION AROUND TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY:
FRIONA/TULIA       60/90/60/92 2100  CHILDRESS 63/90/65/95 2100
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 60/90/62/92 2100  ASPERMONT 63/88/64/92 2100

.LUB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-291930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS...OR THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...
THE ACTIVITY COULD MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...NEITHER SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT NOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.