Hail and Lightning Strike in Florida, May 29, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2002

WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE
CIRCULATION IS DISRUPTED BY LAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
U/L LOW APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW ON THURSDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL CREATE CAA
ALOFT OVER THE FA AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BETTER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
RETURN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS PW ONLY 1.02 INCHES ON THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING.  ATTM...MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS LIMITED. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW DAILY SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP.  FLOW MAY BE TOO WEAK TO ALLOW FOR INTERACTION BETWEEN EAST
AND WEST COAST SEABREEZES LATE IN THE DAY.  WILL CONTINUE
WITH FORECAST OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR
ALOFT CAN NOT RULE OUT HAIL WITH A FEW STORMS.

EXTENDED...CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AGAIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION.  GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ALLOWING
FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 063/091 063/091 1323
TPA 069/089 069/088 1323
GIF 068/090 068/090 1324
SRQ 067/088 068/088 1323
FMY 068/090 069/090 1323

.TBW...NONE.

OGLESBY