Hail in Texas, May 29, 2002

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHEAST
TEXAS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS FTWS FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY NEAR A LINE FROM
SEP TO TYR. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE
AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARIES WITH THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT (MAINLY
WIND AND HAIL) WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT INCLUDED) BEGINNING EARLY ON
THURSDAY (POSSIBLY BEFORE SUNRISE) AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
HEAD TOWARD THE COAST. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE OUR MOST
ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. THE LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY...BUT A
SURFACE TROF/SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL HAVE LOWER
POPS AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS IN OUR
CENTRAL AND COASTAL ZONES. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION
LINGERS IN THE GULF. IF THE FEATURES STAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...WE COULD SEE DAILY ACTIVATION OF THE SEABREEZE
FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

F.Y.I. - QUITE AN AMAZING RANGE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MAY 2002.
WITH ONLY THREE DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH...RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA HAVE BEEN VERY LOW. CLL HAS HAD 0.30
INCHES. IN CONTRAST...AREAS TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE UPPER COAST
HAVE BEEN VERY WET. HGX (LEAGUE CITY) TOTAL STANDS AT 8.01 INCHES.
CLLS 0.30 INCHES WOULD END UP AS THE 4TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD. THEY
NEED ANOTHER 1.34 INCHES BEFORE SATURDAY TO KEEP THIS MONTH FROM
BEING ONE OF THE TOP 10 DRIEST MAYS ON RECORD.

.HGX...NONE.

42/30

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 086/067 084/066 085 646
IAH TT 086/068 084/067 085 646
GLS TT 083/072 082/072 083 646

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-292200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE
NORTH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY
FOR THE MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLEVELAND TO
CONROE TO LAKE SOMERVILLE...FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
IN AND AROUND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE INTERACTION OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND THE HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES
INCLUDING LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.