Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 29, 2002

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

13Z GOES SOUNDINGS INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CAPE ABOVE A HIGH LFC. A
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WAS PRESENT WHICH IS SUBSTANTIATED BY
STRATOCUMULUS OUTSIDE WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT. A 500HPA
SHORTWAVE AXIS WAS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF EWX CWA AND WILL
SWEEP OFF THE COAST BY 00Z. NO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN
PLACE. CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...INCLUDING A WEAK SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING SOUTHWEST FROM
EASTERN TX CONVECTION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WILL RAISE POPS TO 50%
CROSSROADS REGION/40% NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/30% SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20% ACROSS WEBB COUNTY WHERE OVERALL
CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE 850HPA TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER TODAY. WILL TWEAK
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY GIVEN
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

MARINE...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO CWF EXCEPT TO ADD CHC SH/TSRA. WIND
FIELDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO OUTFLOW BNDRY COMING SOUTH AND REDUCED
THERMAL LOW. WATCHING S/W OVER N CNTRL TX THIS MORNING...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTN.
MEAN ATMOSPHERIC WIND FLOW WILL BE NNW TO SSE...BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE BAYS AND PSBLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. JET DYNAMICS AND 12Z MODELS NOT TO FAVORABLE FOR
MUCH PRECIP. WILL ADD ONLY CHC PRECIP. NO OTHER CHANGES.

.CRP...NONE.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING..

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH A WESTWARD MOVING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING DIMINISHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
138 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL
7 PM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS UNTIL 7 PM
TONIGHT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VICTORIA...
CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...BEE...SA N PATRICIO...LIVE
OAK...NUECES...KLEBERG...JIM WELLS...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL.

SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE VICTORIA...TILDEN...THREE
RIVERS...BEEVILLE...FREER...ALICE...CORPUS CHRISTI...SINTON...
ROCKPORT AND KINGSVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR AREA. IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY
FLAT DOWN ON THE GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

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