Damaging Winds in Tennessee, June 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2002

CURRENTLY, SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR NEW ORLEANS, WITH A CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
OUR WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY, ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE. 12Z OHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR 18Z SURFACE PARAMETERS GIVES
A LIFTED INDEX OF -6.9 AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF
2539 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU, ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING COPIOUS MOISTURE CIRCULATING
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE MRF
CARRYING HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE LOW CENTER EXTENDING INTO THE
UPPER LEVELS, WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION EVEN AT 300 MB. LOOK FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE MID STATE BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT BNA IS UNLIKELY, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY, TRAPPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN
A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR
MASS.

SO, THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REMAIN QUITE MONOTONOUS, WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH DAY 7. IN THE NEAR TERM
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TOMORROW, WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
ALONG THE PLATEAU, IN THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE, SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO WARMING/COOLING
TRENDS ANTICIPATED.

.BNA...NONE.

ROSE