Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
156 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS TONIGHT...

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE WEST WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS/RAINFALL LOOKING DIM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH AXIS WITH H85 LOW LEVEL JET NOT
CRANKING UNTIL 06Z AND ONLY FOR A SHORT DURATION. WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE.
THEN OVERNIGHT LIFTING MECHANISMS OUT OF PHASE SO ISOLATED AT
BEST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS WAVE CRESTS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FATE OF THE H5 LOW LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THE VARIABILITY IN FRONTAL
LOCATION IN THE PLAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER WILL GO
WITH THE DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS STILL
BUILD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM WITH COOLER AIR NOT
FILTERING SOUTHEAST AS BOUNDARY HANGS ACROSS THE NORTH. READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH HIGHS CLOUDS SPREADINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS
STORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS.

TUESDAY MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ON THE MOVE AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WITH CONVECTION
THAT FORMS BEING ELEVATED INITIALLY THEN POSSIBLY THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING AS PW ARE AN INCH OR HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
FOR IF NO CONVECTION FORMS IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE.

USED A MODEL BLEND TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS AVN IS POINTING TO
THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON HANDLING THE H5 LOW WITH A NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE FRONT
PROBABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT POSITION OF H5 LOW. WILL LEAVE POPS
OUT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.

LONG RANGE MODELS HAS H5 LOW DRIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAK
WIND FLOW ALOFT. DRY FORECAST RETAINED WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

.LBF...NONE.

KECK