Hail in South Dakota, May 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

WITH A FEW MORE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...LIKE MOISTURE...THIS PROBABLY
COULD HAVE BEEN A GOOD SIZED SVR WX EVENT THIS EVENING. STALLED SFC
BNDRY CRNTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 90...IS FCST TO NEVER MAKE IT
THROUGH A YANKTON TO JACKSON LINE TNGT. CONVECTION FIRED UP IN CNTRL
NEB AHEAD OF EXISTING DRY LINE...WITH STRONG MID LVL WAVE STARTING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO...EXITING UPR TROF FM THE NRN STREAM IN
SRN CANADA HAS LEFT THIS AREA IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR JET ENTRANCE
REGION. HOWEVER...MSTR IS SEVERELY LACKING BLO 700MB TDAY AND TNGT.
THIS HAS CRUSHED THE CAPES IN THE FSD CWA...CONFIRMED BY BOTH THE
MESOETA AND RUC...AND LIS FM THE SFC TO 800MB ARE MORE STABLE THAN
PROGGED YDAY. BEST LOW LVL JET INFLOW AND LOW LVL JET SPEED
CONVERGENCE WL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE TS FIRED UP IN
THE FIRST PLACE. MAY BE SOME MARGINAL SVR RIGHT ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING...AS BEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST CAPES
EXIST IN THIS AREA...FROM SAY SOUTHEAST CHARLES MIX TO VERMILLION.
MAY MENTION A SVR CHC IN THIS ZONE AND IN PARTS OF NW IA BEFORE
ISSUANCE...BUT ANY SVR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

THE REST OF THE FCST IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT. THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SUB TROPICAL UPR LOW KICKING OUT TDAY...AND WAS
FOLLOWED MORE THAN THE FURTHER NORTH AVN. TIMING OF ANY FEATURES FOR
TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT AT BEST...AND BASICALLY JUST PUT IN LOW POPS
EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE CNTRL PLAINS TROPICAL FEED AND THE WEAKENING
LEFTOVER SFC BNDRY. HOWEVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWV
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON BOTH MODELS...GIVING THE AREA
A SHOT FOR MORE TS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER IN THE ERN CWA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING MID LVL WAVE. FOLLOWED MAINLY THE ETA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY EVENING...SOME LEFTOVER MID
LVL TROFINESS EXISTS IN THE ERN CWA WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING IN THE
850 WINDS...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME TS WITH HIGH MID LVL MSTR. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A RIDGE RIDER MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA
POSSIBLY GIVING THE FSD FA ANOTHER SHOT FOR CONVECTION.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE STILL EXISTS ON THU AND FRI IN THE RCKYS...
HOWEVER LAST NIGHTS MRF BRINGS IN A RIDGE RIDER FRI NIGHT AND
EXITING ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A GOOD RIDGE RIDER PTRN SO THERE COULD
BE SOMETHING THERE...SIMILAR TO WHAT MAY GO THRU ON WED. ON
SUNDAY...MRF STILL IS ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPR TROF TO MOVE IN FM THE
SW AS IT WAS YDAY...SO WENT AHD AND MENTIONED SOME MORE TS.

.FSD...NONE
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