Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 26, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...FIRST AND FOREMOST CONCERN IS STORM CHC/S THIS AFTN/TONIGHT
AND THREAT FOR SVR...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EARNEST MSTR TRANSPORT INTO CNTRL/SW NE
ON NOSE OF STG LL SRLY FLOW INADV OF UPPER TROF SITUATED ALG NE/SD
BORDER AND ASSOCD/SFC TROF OVR NRN NE. PREFNTL AIRMASS ALREADY
QUITE UNSTABLE AND SEEMINGLY PRIMED FOR CONV INITIATION COME LT AFTN.
BEST MSTR FLUX CONCURRENT WITHIN AREA OF BTR PRES FALLS ALG A HLC TO
BBW LINE W/ INCREASING ACCAS FIELD INVOF SFC RIPPLE AND UPPER WV
VCNTY VTN.

SO IT SEEMS STORMS SHLD INITIATE SOMEWHERE N OF BBW OVR TO ONL AND
SWWD ALG DRYLINE ARND 300 PM...SIMILAR TO ETA/META PROG...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALG SFC THETA GRADIENT. NOCTURNAL LL JET INCREASE
INTO SC NE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY AIDE IN MCS DVLPMNT OVR NE HALF
OF CWA...SOMEWHAT FURTHER WWD THEN YDA/S MODEL PROGS AND THEN A
PROPAGATION E/SE INTO NE KS LATE. OTHERWISE...APPEARS DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE CWA WRN BORDER AND HAVE LTL ACTIVITY ASSOCD/W IT HERE
BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING. DEEP LYR SHEAR ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE MORE
THEN ENOUGH IN TANDEM W/MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
W/SIG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT COMBINED W/MID LVL DRYNESS MAKES FOR
MODEST LG HAIL THREAT. FOR MON...APPEARS ANY LINGERING STORMS...
RESIDUAL CLD DEBRIS AND LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY KEEP
RENEWED STORM THREAT AT BAY UNTIL MON NIGHT IN ASSOCN/W NXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF OVR WA ATTM. GOING TEMPS FOR MON WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE
MODIFICATION DOWNWARD GIVEN ABV EXPECTATIONS. AFT THAT...APPEARS LG
SCALE HGT RISES AND SRN STREAM SPLIT CUTOFF LOW MIGRATING THRU SRN
PLAINS WILL PRETTY MUCH PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP MENTION THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPS WARM TO SUMMER LIKE LEVELS W/TUE PD STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND THEREBY NECESSITATING KEEPING THE GOING
POPS THEN.

.GID...NONE.

TEH

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-262300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
NEAR THE BORDER REGION OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT KICKED A FEW
SHOWERS OFF THIS MORNING...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF NEBRASKA...DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WILL ALSO HELP FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELY TO FIRST DEVELOP
NORTH OF GREELEY COUNTY AFTER 2 PM...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MOVEMENT OF
INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO THE EAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR SUGGEST THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH AROUND 2 AM.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK DRYLINE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS...PUSHES INTO VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AGAIN...
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
10 PM.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-271000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 800 PM CDT...FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF A GREELEY TO ALMA LINE.

SOUTH WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AIDING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST
OF A GREELEY TO HOLDREGE LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY AFTER 700 PM.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...FOR AREAS WEST OF THE US 81 CORRIDOR.