Hail in Oklahoma, May 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
212 AM SUN MAY 26 2002

RATHER IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA..FEEDING OFF CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AS LIFT
CONTINUES TO ACT ON UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE..BUT COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION SHUD DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
DEVELOPING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENT/WRN TX NWD INTO
WRN KS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR SOMEWHERE
ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EWD TONITE.  THUS..WE
WILL BUMP POPS UPWARD FOR THE FIRST 2 PDS.

FORECAST FOR PERIODS BEYOND BECOMES INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT UPON
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.  IT IS
LATE MAY..AND WE WILL LIKELY HAVE PRETTY HEALTHY INSTABILITY IN
PLACE EACH DAY. SO..CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE..WITH BEST
CHANCE RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE TUES INTO WED.  SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS WANT TO BUILD A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS MID/LATE WEEK..BUT AM NOT NECESSARILY INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SINCE THE SAME MODELS 6 DAYS AGO WERE FORECASTING A SIMLIAR
PATTERN FOR RIGHT NOW..WHICH IS HARDLY THE CASE.  WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND..WE REALLY DO NOT HAVE ANY COMPELLING REASONS TO MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS..SO WE WONT ATTM.
 MILLER

PRELIM NUMBERS..
OKC   79  65  81  66 /  40  20  40  40
HBR   82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  40
SPS   83  67  84  68 /  20  30  30  40
GAG   80  63  82  62 /  40  50  30  50
PNC   77  65  80  66 /  20  40  40  40
DUA   79  66  82  67 /  70  20  30  30

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-260600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

THREAT TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

11