Flash Flooding and Hail in Virginia, May 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2002

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SVR TSTM WATCH ALL ZONES THRU 8 PM.

...PREVIOUS AFD...

AT 15Z...MOSUNNY SKIES ALL BUT FAR NE CWA ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 70S. THIS SUN WILL BE VERY HELPFUL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFT TSRA AS WEAK BDRY CURRENTLY ALONG NW CWA BORDER SLOWLY CRAWLS
ESE INTO CWA. BUFKIT MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 2500 J/KG BY THIS
AFT WITH TRIGGER TEMP REACHED. 12Z ETA SHOWS THETA E RIDGE OVER CWA
AND PLENTY OF VVEL AT 500/700MB BY 00Z ALONG BDRY.

EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS CWA 2-3PM WITH STORMS AHEAD OF BDRY TO
BE PULSE VARIETY WITH SUSTAINED ACTIVITY ALONG BDRY. STORMS THAT
FORM ALONG SLOW MOVING BDRY MAY PRODUCE HVY RAINFALL IF THEY TRAIN.
PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.2 INCHES ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP HVY RAIN THREAT
LOW IN PULSE STORMS. FREEZING LEVEL 12KFT AND WETBULB ZERO 11KFT A
BIT HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL BUT CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY DUE TO STRONG
VVEL. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS. SPC
HAS MOST OF CWA /EXCLUDING FAR W SLIVER/ IN SLIGHT RISK THIS AFT.

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING CLD WORDING AND TO RAISE POPS.
WILL ALSO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR WINDS/HAIL AND RAISE AFT TEMPS IN
SHEN VALLEY DUE TO CURRENT TREND. FOR TONIGHT...WILL REMOVE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT PRECIP WORDING DUE TO BDRY BEING OVHD AND 12Z ETA
CONTINUING VVEL AFT 00Z. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

MMARGRAF

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-262300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1040 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBILE. THE TIME OF PEAK THREAT IS MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

RESIDENTS...TOURISTS...BOATERS AND OTHERS ENJOYING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER BULLETINS AND STATEMENTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

MMARGRAF

MDZ004-VAZ026-027-029>031-038>042-051-WVZ053-261915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

AT 210 PM DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST
NORTH OF JEROME IN SHENANDOAH COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHENANDOAH
COUNTY BETWEEN 2:15 PM AND 3:00 PM. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LURAY IN PAGE
COUNTY. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL AFFECT PAGE
COUNTY AND WARREN COUNTY WITH SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING BETWEEN 215 PM AND 300 PM.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER.

WALSTON