Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, July 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUNCHING THROUGH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ROUNDING TOP OF SAID RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL PREFERENCE LEANS HEAVY ON RUC/MESO ETA FOR TONIGHT PERIOD WITH
MESO ETA USED THROUGHOUT DAY 2 AND AVN PICKING UP THE REMAINS FOR
DAY 3. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DESCREPANCIES THIS MORNING. AVN APPEARED
A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM AT 700MB BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.
RUC/MESO ETA MODEL ALSO DOING A BETTER JOB RIGHT NOW IN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.

TONIGHT...RUC AND MESO ETA MODEL DEPICTING HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL CWA AND BY 06Z OVER EASTERN CWA. INSTABILITY IS
IN PLACE WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. JUST WAITING FOR THE LOW LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT TO PICK UP THE PACE. VGP OVER 0.3 AND EHI OVER 2.5 BEING
ADVERTISED TODAY BY THE RUC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH 0-3KM WIND SHEAR VECTOR EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 45 AND 90
DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTATION...COULD SEE SUPERCELLULAR
ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO LINEAR SQUALL LINE TYPE SCENARIO
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EXTREME EAST...FOR HEAVY RAINERS. THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP AND
COORDINATION CHANHASSEN.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PASSES OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA. WITH DECENT
COOLING BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
AND TRUE SURFACE TO 850MB CAA...IF THERE IS TO BE ANY...TO START BY
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AND CARRY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE
KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTER STARTS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM CWA. EXPECT WINDS TO COME UP SOMEWHAT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS ON THE REBOUND ON
FRIDAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. ALSO HAVE INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING FROM MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED ON
CWA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN US THROUGH MON. AVN EXT SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROF MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW...AND THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. W US
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...INDICATING MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AVN EXT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
MN AND WI SAT NITE INTO SUN. THE MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUDNARY WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA INTO
MN AND WI. WITH CURRENT MODEL PROJECTION OF THE PAC NW TROF MOVING E
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GRT PLAINS ON TUE INTO WED...THERE
MAY BE SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE
RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.ABR...NONE.

DORN/ALBRECHT