Hail and Damaging Wind in New York, July 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002

SHORT TERM WX DISC...THE LTST LOOP OF IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS EXPANDING FURTHER NORTH INTO NRN
NY STATE AND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN PA AS IT ADVECTS EWD TOWARD
THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS CONT TO DEVELOP IN THE
DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN PA.

PRE-EXISTING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. SEA BREEZES ARE
WEAK. THE SURFACE CD FNT...WHICH IS THE MAIN TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS
STILL FAR TO OUR WEST. THE BOTTOM LINE...IM NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SFC DEW POINTS BETWEEN 65 AND
70 DEGS AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENTS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES...ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. I PLAN TO FCST POPS
OF 70 PCT ACROSS OUR NORTH ZONES AND 60 PCT ALONG THE COAST...UNTIL
ABOUT MIDN.

WED - FRI...AN EXCEPTIONALLY COOL AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PUSHED BY A 1026 TO 1030 MB HIGH...WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH
FRI. IN GENERAL...I PLAN TO LEAN TWD THE COOLEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGHOUT THIS PD...WHICH ACTUALLY PRODUCE LOWS FROM 45 TO
50 DEGS DURING WED NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN NY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...WE WILL CONT THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL INCREASE OUR WIND SPEED FCST TO AROUND
20 KTS FOR LATE WED...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SHOT/TIGHT
THICKNESS GRADIENT...OF LOW LVL COOL AIR. WE MAY HAVE TO RE-ISSUE A
SCA FOR MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.

OKX.
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ON THE OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355.

GC