Hail in South Dakota, July 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

S/WS MOVG THROUGH ALONG WITH WAA...GOOD INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TSRAS TO MAINLY NE SD AND WC MN THIS EVENING.
SOME TSRAS IN ND COULD DROP INTO NC SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST LATER THIS EVENING SKIES WILL GO CLEAR TO P/C
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT WITH NOT
MUCH FOR WIND LATER AND CLOUDS. THE MDLS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA ON MON AND TUES WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH W TO NW WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY. MON AND TUES
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE CWA. THE ETA AND AVN SHOW A S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TUES
AND TUES EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AVN IS THE ONLY ONE WITH ANY QPF WITH
IT. WILL LEAVE TUES DRY FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME
ON WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE AVN SHOWS A STRONG S/W SLIDING ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
WED AFTN AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

AVN PAINTS A MORE AMPLIFIED PICTURE THAN DOES THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AVN SEPARATES PIECE OF ENERGY IN WEST COAST
TROF AND PUSHES ENERGY ACROSS INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH CLEAR THROUGH CWA SO THAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WOULD BE DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED DAYS. THEN
REINTRODUCE A FLAT RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US THAT PERSISTS UNTIL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN LEE-SIDE OF RIDGE IN THE TAIL END OF
THE EXTENDED. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE RESERVED WITH ONLY A HINT OF A
SURFACE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH AND BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY OF THE EXTENDED. ENSEMBLE PRECIP MEANS OF THE AVN
EXT LOOK TO COINCIDE MORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAN ITS OWN
SOLUTION. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PACKAGE...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT FOR NOW AND STICK SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THIS TIME
AROUND.

.ABR...NONE

MOHR/DORN