Hail and Damaging Winds in New York, July 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP ALONG THE THETA-E
GRADIENT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN. THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS BEEN
WEAKENING ...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING IN THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CENTERED BETWEEN THE LOWER LAKES. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH
THE BUF AREA AROUND 5AM AND ROC AROUND DAYBREAK. THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL MID MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW VERY HIGH CAPES DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD REINTENSIFY SOMEWHAT WITH THE
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BULK OF THE PCPN FOR MOST OF THE FA WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE NOW POORLY DEFINED WARM FRONT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL
LEAVE SOME OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT RIGHT NOW I DO NOT SEE ANY
OBVIOUS SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WHICH COULD REIGNITE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UP OF MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS FORECAST TO TRACK
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WEAK TROUGH AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE BREEZE COULD SET OFF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...I WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT (MORE OF A WIND SHIFT LINE) IS FORECAST
TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
HAVE MUCH HIGHER CAPES TO WORK WITH...SO THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE OUR WARM AND VERY HUMID WEATHER PATTER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AVN IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY.

.BUF...NONE

TJP