Heavy Snow in Rhode Island, November 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1258 AM EST WED NOV 27 2002

...PRELIM DISC FOR COORD...

PLANNING TO LWR ACCUMS SLGTLY IN 4AM PKG.  THIS MEANS WELL NEED TO
DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM WRNG TO A WINTER WX ADVY AND MAINTAIN OUR
ADVYS ELSW...XCPT DROP IT ENTIRELY FOR CAPE COD AND THE VINEYARD.

00Z ETA/GFS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH SECONDARY LO AND ARE SLGTLY
DRIER AS WELL.  STILL XPCT MAIN QPF AXIS TO RUN THRU NRN CT INTO
RI AND SE MA...WHERE WE WL GO WITH 3-6 TOTALS...BUT ITS HARD TO
JUSTIFY 8 AFT A THOROUGH REVIEW OF AVBL GUID.  PLANNING TO GO 2-4
N OF MASS PIKE (XCPT 1-3 S NH)...KEEP 3-6 S COAST AND LWR TO 1-3
ON CAPE/ISL.

ALTHO BOTH ETA/GFS SIMILAR...ETA WITH ITS BETTER LL RESOLUTION SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HNDL ON MESOSCALE FEATURES.  XSXNS INDCT BEST SNOW
GROWTH WL TAKE PLACE ACRS RI AND SE MA THIS MRNG BUT BEST LIFT
QUICKLY EXITS THIS AFTN.  SOME POTL FOR CSI/CI BANDING IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL BUT SYS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AS H7 TROF REMAINS OPEN AND H85 LO
ONLY CLOSES OFF BRIEFLY.  AS FOR CAPE AND ISL...PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIG QUESTION BUT THCKNS SUPPORT EITHER RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO
ERLY AFTN...THEN IT ALL CHGS TO SNW AS PCPN TAPERS OFF.  AREAS N OF
MASS PIKE NEVER APPEAR TO GET INTO DEEPER LIFT FM THIS SYS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A SFC LO TRACK WELL SE OF BENCHMARK.

MORE LATER.  PROPOSED ADVY ZNS AVBL IN WWA.

.BOX...
CT...WINTER WX ADVY TDA ZNS 2>4.
MA...WINTER WX ADVY TDA ZNS 2>21.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WX ADVY TDA ZNS 1>7.

JWD

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-271745-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1252 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND ACROSS INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS FROM WORCESTER TO THE
BERKSHIRES...AND TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.  THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AM AND
4 PM WEDNESDAY.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE GREATER HARTFORD...SPRINGFIELD
WORCESTER...BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM FOUR TO EIGHT
INCHES. THIS WOULD INCLUDE INTERSTATES 84...90...91 AND 95.
THE CONFIDENCE OF MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW IS 50 PERCENT IN THE
GREATER SPRINGFIELD AREA...60 PERCENT FROM HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND
BOSTON...AND 70 PERCENT IN THE PROVIDENCE AREA AND BOSTONS SOUTHERN
SUBURBS INCLUDING BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES IN MASSACHUSETTS
AND PROVIDENCE AND KENT COUNTIES IN RHODE ISLAND. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LESS.  TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT BORDERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF MORE THAN SIX INCHES IN THIS AREA RANGES
FROM 50 PERCENT APPROACHING THE MASS PIKE TO 30 PERCENT APPROACHING
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT BORDERS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS COASTS EXCLUDING OUTER CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND BLOCK
ISLAND WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. CONFIDENCE OF THIS
ACCUMULATION TOTAL IS 70 PERCENT.

ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND BLOCK ISLAND WILL
RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES....EXCEPT AN INCH OR LESS ON
NANTUCKET. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACCUMULATION TOTAL IS 70 PERCENT.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENT WILL BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

THE COASTAL ROUTE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SLUSHY WET
ACCUMULATION WITH A POWDERY COLDER SNOWFALL IN THE INTERIOR.

SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS IN COASTAL EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...PARTLY DUE TO AN OCEAN EFFECT CONTRIBUTION.

MORE DETAILS SHOULD BE KNOWN LATER TODAY...WHEN EITHER WE ISSUE A
WARNING FOR THE MODERATE SNOW STORM POTENTIAL...OR AN ADVISORY FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF TO TH NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL INTRUDE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
INTO THANKSGIVING.  WIND CHILL AT SUNRISE THANKSGIVING SHOULD RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING MAYBE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 28.

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML

STRAUSS