Extreme Cold in Pennsylvania, May 17 to 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2002

BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
AGAIN TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
WAVE.  OUR COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS IN
TRACKING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT AND THEN
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST SATURDAY MORNING.  A PERIOD
OF STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE
TWIN TIERS ON SOUTH ACROSS THE POCONOS AND THE WYOMING AND
LACKAWANNA VALLEYS.  THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SO THAT A BRIEF MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.  WELL MENTION UP TO A
SLUSHY INCH OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS (HAPPY SPRING).  IT APPEARS THAT OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE
ON THE FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  AS A RESULT, WELL ONLY
GO WITH CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF SHORE.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK CHILLY, BUT DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
BUT THE NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN TOUGHER.
THE EXACT DEGREE OF CLEARING AND ALSO THE WINDS WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF A FROST/FREEZE THREAT THERE WILL BE.  WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT
THIS SITUATION MORE CLOSELY.  SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE FROM ABOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION ON SOUTH AND EAST.  AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DESTABILIZATION UNDER COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES.

WORK ZONES WILL BE SENT BY 3.  THE FINAL PRODUCT SHOULD FLY BEFORE
3:30.

.BGM...NONE.

JUREWICZ