Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 17, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST TX CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LEAVE
STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A FEW PULSE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM DURING THE PAST HOUR
ACROSS GILLESPIE, KENDAL, AND KERR COUNTIES. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SUNSHINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKING ON A NW
TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT BEARS DOWN ON CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED INITIALLY, THEN BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE
THREAT IN THIS ATMOSPHERE OF MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UP TO 2 INCHES BUT TRAINING ECHOES ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL
LIFT COULD BE PROVIDED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO APPROACHES TX, BUT MODEL UPPER LEVEL WINDS CALL FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO BE SHEARED APART AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENCE THUS
ONLY EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PAST MIDNIGHT WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW FOR MORE STABLE AIR IN
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
REMNANT MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK STABLE AS WELL, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD FORM
NEAR DRT MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS RELOADING IN THIS AREA.
THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, THE WEATHER WILL
BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH BELOW LOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE PROGRESS OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPEED UP MOISTURE RETURN TUESDAY AND
CAPPING BY THURSDAY SO HAVE MADE THESE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS...
AUS 057/078/052/080/056 2000-
DRT 061/083/059/086/064 4200-
SAT 058/080/055/082/058 5-00-

.EWX...NONE.

18/23/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 AM    10 SW GONZALES            TX   WIND DAMAGE 05/17/02
GONZALES                                  ROOF BLOWN OFF MARKET SHOP

                                          REPORTED
                                          CO-OP OBSERVER

03-4 AM    I/10 AND CALAHAN          TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/02   BEXAR                          *** 0 INJ ***
                                          DAMAGE TO THE RED MCCOMB
                                          CAR DEALERSHIP: BILLBOARD
                                          STRIPEED, 16 CARS
                                          DAMAGED, 300 YARDS OF
                                          FENCE KNOCKED OVER.REPORTED
                                          BY OTHER

03-4 AM    WURZBACH PKWY             TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/02   BEXAR                          ANIMAL DEFENSE LEAGUE ON
                                          WURZBACH PKWY. AWNING
                                          DESTROYED, MINOR WIND
                                          DAMAGE.REPORTED BY OTHER