Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, July 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

SFC WARM FRONT FROM SRN ONTARIO AND WRN NEW...SE TO THE POCONO
REGION OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL ACT AS A CORRIDOR FOR THE CURRENT MCS
FROM NEAR CYHM TO KBFD. BACKING MEAN FLOW IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER
WILL KEEP THE SHRA/TSRA CONFINED MAINLY TO THE REGION NORTH OF I-80
THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER H50-700 HPA WSW FLOW AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SECOND BATCH
OF TSRA (CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE ERIE) ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING
THE FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FOR ABOUT A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

AN EAST/WEST LLVL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN THE MORE CLOUD FREE AND VERY WARM/HUMID AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN...SHOULD FIRE FAIRLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. WENT FOR A WEDGE OF HIGHER/LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH SCATTERED POP WORDING ACROSS
THE NRN AND SRN TIER COUNTIES.

MAX CAP (9.0 C AT 700 HPA) WILL BE LOCATED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO CONVECTION THAT DOES
MAKE IT THROUGH THIS STABLE LAYER WILL HAVE VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS.
SFC-3KM HELICITY VALUES ALSO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 150 AND 200 M2/S2
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENN...SO A ROTATING STORMS COULD OCCUR LATER
TODAY. VALUES MAY EVEN BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALSO...PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
WHERE TRAINING CELLS OCCUR.

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS NRN
SRN NEW YORK AND NRN PENN TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL WINDS AND BROAD 850-700 HPA STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY (WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS
BY A FEW DEGREES).

RIDGE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH MONDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE
AMOUNT OF TSRA RELATIVE TO TODAY.

A COLD FRONT (MORE LIKE A STRONG DEWPOINT FRONT) WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA. LESS HUMID AIR WILL ACCOMPANY NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PRECEDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
LIKELY USHER IN PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

MDT   95  73  96  74 /  60  20  40  20
IPT   93  70  93  71 /  60  30  40  20
BFD   85  72  86  68 /  40  30  40  20
JST   87  72  86  68 /  60  20  40  20
AOO   91  72  91  71 /  60  20  40  20
UNV   90  71  91  71 /  60  30  40  20
SEG   94  70  94  72 /  70  30  40  20
LNS   95  74  98  75 /  40  30  40  20
THV   96  74  96  75 /  50  20  40  20

.CTP...SPS (SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT) FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWFA.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-281600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THIS MUGGY AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
LEFT OVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE RATHER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...ALONG WITH INCREASING AND
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP
TO INTENSIFY THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A
DAMAGING WIND GUST AROUND 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES...AND RAPID RISES IN
STREAMS AND CREEKS...COULD OCCUR IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE 2 OR 3
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

LAMBERT/LIPTON

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-281600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THIS MUGGY AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
LEFT OVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE RATHER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...ALONG WITH INCREASING AND
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP
TO INTENSIFY THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A
DAMAGING WIND GUST AROUND 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES...AND RAPID RISES IN
STREAMS AND CREEKS...COULD OCCUR IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE 2 OR 3
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

LAMBERT/LIPTON

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-281815-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THIS MUGGY AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
LEFT OVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE RATHER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...ALONG WITH INCREASING AND
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP
TO INTENSIFY THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A
DAMAGING WIND GUST AROUND 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES...AND RAPID RISES IN
STREAMS AND CREEKS...COULD OCCUR IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE 2 OR 3
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

LAMBERT/LIPTON