Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, August 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2002

WL ONLY MAKE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS IN
ZONES/RDF...OTRW FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. ONGOING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SE ZONES WL SLOWLY MOVE SE. OTHER
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ESE ACROSS CWA AIDING IN THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION..WEAK WIND SIHFT LINE MOVING ALONG/JUST
AHEAD OF FEATURE. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF LAKE
ONTARIO STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN OHIO...WITH SECONDARY LURKING
BEHIND JUST N OF GREAT LAKES. IT IS BEHIND THIS SECONDARY THAT THE
MUCH DRIER AIR RESIDES...AND THIS MAY NOT REACH CWA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FIRST FRONT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER STRONG TSTMS WITH
TORRENTIAL RAIN/LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MODELS IMPLY SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ENTERING AREA
FROM NW BY LATER THIS AFT...AND SHOULD IT MOVE IN JUST A TAD
FASTER...IT COULD AID IN DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH AFT STORMS. SPC
CONTINUES SLGHT RISK FOR CENTRAL AND SE AREAS. SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL...FOR ALL OF CWA.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS REFIRE WITH
SECONDARY BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR NW AREAS.

.CTP...SPS FOR ALL OF AREA FOR SLGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

KL

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-052000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
903 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT MID
MORNING WILL WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL COME PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH IN A 30 MINUTE PERIOD...AND
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

REMEMBER...ONE OF THE BIGGEST DANGERS DURING THUNDERSTORMS IS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS...SUCH AS GOLF
COURSES...AND SEEK SHELTER INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

LAMBERT

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP