Flash Flood and Hail in Colorado, August 5, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
315 AM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

TDA-WED...MDLS MAINTAIN THE CENTER OF THE UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL
MIDWEST AND CNTRL GRT PLAINS THRU WED AS UPR TROF OVR PAC NW
STARTS TO MOVE INLAND OVR NRN RCKYS BY LATE WED.  THUS THE
PIPELINE FOR DEEP MONSOONAL FLO OF MOISTURE FM MEXICO ACRS AZ
AND NM INTO THE CNTRL RCKYS WILL RMN OPEN.  PRECIPITIBLE WATERS
WILL RMN WELL OVR AN INCH WITH SUM VALUES UP TO ARND 1 1/3 INCHES.
THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABV 150% OF NORMAL.  RECENT RAINFALL AND
TSTM OUTFLOWS HAVE ALSO MOISTENED THE LWR LAYERS WITH SFC DWPTS
IN THE 60S ON THE HI PLAINS THIS MRNG.  FCST UPR AIR SOUNDINGS
TDA AND TUE RMN NRLY SATURATED ABV 600-650MB AND ARE MOIST
ADIABATIC IN NATURE.  A WK SHT WV IN MONSOONAL FLO THIS AFTN
AND EVE WILL ENHANCE TSTM DVLPMNT.  ALL OF THIS IS STG EVIDENCE
FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL ESPCLY THIS AFTN AND EVE.  THE
ONLY LACKING INGREDIENTS ARE LIGHTER FCST WNDS ALF WHICH APPR TO
BE ARND 10 KTS AND GUD LO LVL UPSLP FLO OVR THE HI PLAINS.  NEVER
THE LESS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TDA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA.  THERE IS NO LET UP IN THE MOISTURE ON TUE XCPT
THE MESOETA IS SUGGESTIVE OF DRIER AIR ALF MOVG INTO NERN CRNR OF
STA LATE TUE AFTN.  MONSOONAL FLO CONDITIONS WILL CONT INTO WED.
MAX TEMPS MAY WELL BE A LTL COOLER TDA AND A LTL WRMR ON TUE AND
COOLER AGN ON WED.  BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE ARND SEASONAL
NORMS.

IN XTNDD PRD...THU-SUN...WILL MAKE NO CHNGS TO CURRENT FCST ATTM.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-052000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH
A GENERAL SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO.
THERE IS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE NOON HOUR...AND
SPREAD OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...AND LATER
ON FURTHER EAST.

STEERING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME MOVEMENT OF STORMS
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH...WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER THE SAME AREAS A
POSSIBILITY.  AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT TODAY WITH THE MAIN FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE BURN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER HAYMAN BURN AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE
APPRECIATED.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY: SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ENTREKIN