Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Florida, August 5, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2002

CURRENT WX...
TANDEM LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE NRN GOMEX AND OFF THE SC COAST
CONTINUE TO KEEP CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER AN AREAS OF UPR LVL CONV...
WHILE WEAK H50 PVA AND H25 DIV AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS HELPING TO
ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN CWA.  H70 OMEGA FIELD
REFLECTS THE SITUATION AS WELL WITH A LARGE BUBBLE OF SINKING AIR
OVER THE NRN CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN RISING AIR OVER THE ERN
PANHANDLE AND THE SRN PENINSULA. WCSB MAKING GOOD INLAND PROGRESS N
OF KTPA...NOT SO GOOD TO THE S.  ECSB NOT DISCERNIBLE N OF KFPR.

FCST DISC...
TONIGHT...SUPPRESSION IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WILL SQUASH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WCSB AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ECSB WILL BE LATE TO FORM...AND SHOULD
PROGRESS NO FURTHER THAN THE I-95 CORRIDOR.   HOWEVER...LATE
INTERACTION OF THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED...AND WHAT FEW
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE AN UNMODIFIED AMS TO FEED OFF.  SHOULD
SEE A BURST OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...MORE NUMEROUS S OF THE CAPE DUE TO THE BETTER LIFTING
MECHANISMS IN PLACE.

TUE-WED...AN INTERESTING WX PICTURE IS SHAPING UP FOR FL.  WHILE THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...A
S/WV FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PUSH SE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A +115KT H25 JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY...A DEVELOPING HI AMP TROF/RIDGE/TROF
PATTERN AT H50 WILL DRIVE THE SFC/LOW LVL TROF FAR ENOUGH S TO ALLOW
IT TO MERGE WITH THE CAROLINA LOW.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE CAROLINA
LOW WILL ADD ITS ENERGY TO THE S/WRN EXTENSION OF THE TROF...AND MAY
ADD JUST ENOUGH TORQUE TO SWING THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE PENINSULA.

WHILE EARLY AUG FROPAS ARE RARE IN FL...THEY HAVE HISTORICALLY
OCCURRED UNDER SUCH A LONG WAVE WX PATTERN...AND PSEUDO-FROPAS WHICH
RESEMBLE THIS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE WAKE OF RECURVING TCS OFF
THE ATLC COAST. RECENT EXAMPLES INCLUDE DENNIS AND FLOYD IN 1999...
AND THE PREVIOUS BERTHA IN 1996.

TUES WX WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PERIPHERAL
H25 SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY H100-H50 AIR POCKET WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN
FLANK OF THE ATLC LOW.  HOWEVER...ON WED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BE PLOWING
THROUGH AN AUGUST AMS.  SHOULD E/WCSB FORMATION OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FROPA...A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR.  THE MAIN FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE LOW LVL FEATURES.
AVN RACES THE ATLC LOW RAPIDLY INTO THE ATLC ON WED WHILE FORMING A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG ITS TRAILING TROF...WHILE ETA SPLITS THE ATLC
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUE AND DEVELOPS TWO INDEPENDENT
CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT STRADDLE THE FL PENINSULA ON WED.

ATTM...DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY STOP THE TROF.  BEHIND
THE FRONT...BOTH MODELS INDICATE NRLY H85-H50 PUSH OVER THE ENTIRE
ERN U.S. THAT ONLY GETS STRONGER WITH INCREASING LATITUDE.  INDEED
...THE DIFFERENCE IN WEDS MAV/MET NUMERICAL POPS IS MINOR.  WILL GO
W/60 POPS N AND 50 POPS S FOR NOW...BUT THESE MAY INCREASE WITH
LATER PACKAGES.

MARINE...DEVELOPING ATLC LOW NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS DIRECTLY.  IT WILL GENERATE SOME NERLY SWELL ON TUE AND
WED...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY HIGHLIGHTS.  THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL TROF PUSHES
INTO THE STATE AND NERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
NWW3 MODELS BRING LCL SEAS UP AROUND 2M BY 12Z THU.  CURRENT TREND
IN WINDS/SEAS LOOKS GOOD...MAJOR CHANGES NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE
AFTN PACKAGE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BT 073/096 075/090 074 322
MCO BB 074/095 075/092 073 232
MLB BB 074/093 075/091 074 422  81

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI