High Wind in Oregon, December 13 to 14, 2002

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL STRONG STORM SYSTEMS INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH POSSIBLE HIGH
WINDS NEAR THE COAST...THEN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO SAT EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES INLAND. ANOTHER STRONG
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SUN.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...DEEP LOW CENTER ALONG 140W NOW BEGINNING TO DRIVE NE
WITH TRAILING WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS WAVE DEVELOP AS IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN
SHOWN BY MODELS WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND JET DYNAMICS.  AVN
SWINGS THIS WAVE NE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SOAKING
RAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.  SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET
THIS MORNING SHOULD RISE ABOVE 7000 FEET LATE TODAY WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIP SO ADVISORIES LIKELY NOT NEEDED.  WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT REMAINS A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVENT.
EXPECT TO STICK WITH THE WIND WARNING COAST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET THE WINDS ALONG THE S WA COAST.  WILL WAIT UNTIL NEW
MODEL DATA COMES IN BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY STRONG COASTAL WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WITH
MESO ETA STILL SHOWING 80 KT WINDS AT 850 MB ALONG THE COAST AND 100
KT JUST OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE HARD FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENTS. WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

MODELS BRING ANOTHER STRONG LOW OFF THE WA COAST LATE SUN FOR ANOTHER
THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN.  SOME DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE AMONG MODELS CONTINUE SO WILL PLAY THIS CONSERVATIVELY FOR
NOW.  ETA SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN DEVELOPING A PACIFIC BOMB AND
ROTATING IT NE INTO S BRITISH COLUMBIA.  EXACT DEPTH AND TRACK WILL
MAKE A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE.  WILL EVALUATE THE HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.  RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A
COASTAL EVENT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE.  STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NEW MONDAY
LOW SHOWING UP IN THE 00Z GFS RUN.

AST +++78  PDX 89978  SLE 99978  EUG 99978

.PQR...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FRI.
      .HIGH WIND WARNING S WASHINGTON COAST AND N AND CENTRAL OREGON
       COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
      .HIGH WIND WATCH COAST AND COAST RANGE OF SOUTHWEST WA AND
       NORTHWEST OREGON SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-141430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST TODAY.

GALE WARNING FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WITH STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...AND GALES AGAIN ON MONDAY. A HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. A HIGH WIND OUTLOOK
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OREGON COAST FOR SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SHOULD UNEXPECTED CONDITIONS ARISE SPOTTERS SHOULD CALL IN AS PER
THEIR SPOTTER CALL IN CRITERIA. REPORTS OF HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE
HELPFUL.