Tornado in Florida, December 13, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2002

...TORNADO/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH NOON...

CURRENT...ONGOING TOR WATCH (776) FOR ECFL THROUGH NOON. LEADING
EDGE OF SQLN RACING THROUGH NRN CWA AND LIES FROM MOSQUITO LAGOON TO
EAST OF KMCO...TO THE NRN EDGE OF LAKE KISM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE PUSHING ONSHORE SW FLORIDA COAST. SHALLOW MESO CIRCS AND
SPORADIC LTG NOTED IN THE MOST INTENSE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN
THE LINE. SPEED OF MOVEMENT HAS RESULTED IN QUITE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE
35KT. 0-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES SHOWN BY LATEST ADAS ANLYS TO
STILL BE ABOVE 300 M2/S2..BUT DECREASING SINCE 12Z.

SOUTH OF THIS LINE...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION TO THE
TUNE OF ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSOLATION.
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE HELICITY VALUES TO DECREASE
...THUS REDUCING TORNADIC POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...WITH THE CONCERN FOR
BOW-ECHOES/STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SERN CWA.

NORTH OF THE LINE...LOWER DEW POINTS COUPLED WITH STRATIFORM CLOUDS/
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP.

ZFP UPDATE TIED TO STATUS OF WATCH...BUT WILL LIKELY REMOVE MENTION
OF TSTMS ALTOGETHER OVER THE NORTH AND PART OF THE CENTRAL CWA...
AND EVENTUALLY TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW CWA. OBVIOUSLY...WILL
NEED TO DROP TEMPS BACK AS WELL.

MARINE...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE 1030AM UPDATE...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER
UPDATE AROUND NOON AS THE STATUS OF WATCH CHANGES.

.MLB...TORNADO WATCH FOR LAKE/SEMINOLE/ORANGE/OSCEOLA/VOLUSIA/
       BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON...
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE...BRAGAW
SVR DESK...GLITTO/SPRATT

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131600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2002

.DAY ONE...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN TO THE GROUND WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO SEVERE LEVELS ABOVE 55 MPH. IN ADDITION
LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO ROTATE.
AS A RESULT THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE CONCERN FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST EARLY
IN THE DAY AND ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDS OF 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE BUT UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH.

BE SURE TO STAY ABREAST OF DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SELF ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THE WINDS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION GO ONLINE TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PB

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131700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
701 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2002

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...
   VOLUSIA...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
HAS ALLOWED A LINE OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING.

STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN TO THE GROUND. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO SEVERE
LEVELS ABOVE 55 MPH. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO ROTATE. AS A RESULT THE STRONGEST STORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE CONCERN FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST THIS MORNING.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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131415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
801 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2002

...RAPIDLY MOVING STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST...

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...
   VOLUSIA...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...

AT 8 AM...A LINE OF RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS CROSSING
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST....AND REACHED THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS THROUGH 10 AM...MAINLY
FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD.

STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN TO THE GROUND WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO SEVERE LEVELS ABOVE 55 MPH. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO ROTATE. THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE
AREAS INCLUDING MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE APPROACH OF
THREATENING WEATHER. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

GLITTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
919 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

830 AM     ORANGE CITY               FL   WIND DAMAGE
12/13/02   VOLUSIA                        TREES AND LIVE POWER
                                          LINES DOWN IN ROADWAY