Heavy Rain in California, December 13 to 14, 2002

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2002

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO WESTERN
NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT.  TROUGHS AHEAD OF THIS MOVE NORTHEAST AS THEY
COME INLAND AND RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THEM MAKES IT
EAST OF THE SIERRA.  700 MB WINDS BECOME QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY.  WILL STICK WITH THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WATCH AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW.  THE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA.  A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THIS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR THE
LOWER VALLEY FLOORS IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS THERE.
THE WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
DETERIORATE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  COREY

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO
GOING FORECAST.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE NEGLIGIBLE TO
OUR AREA FOR DAY 7.  STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 170KT ZONAL JET IMPACTS CENTRAL CA
COAST.  ANOTHER HIGH WIND EPISODE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT ALONG
WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA TOTALING ANOTHER 1-2 FEET.  HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU DAY.  JET
SINKS SOUTH OF AREA BY TUESDAY PUTTING SIERRA AND WRN NV IN COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WED UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SIERRA WILL STILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES AREA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED-THU.  ANOTHER SYSTEM OFF
W COAST THURSDAY HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY MODELS.  GFS AND NOGAPS
INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WITH CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N/130W BY 00Z FRI WHILE
ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A S/W TROUGH WITH MOST ENERGY POINTED
TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN CA BY 00Z FRI.  COLDEST TEMPS OF SEASON ON TAP
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AS CLEARING SKIES OVER FRESH SNOW WILL ALLOW
MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. JAH

.REV...WIND ADVISORY TODAY CA ZONES 70...71
    ...HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY CA ZONES 70...71...72 AND 73
       AND NV ZONES 2...3 AND 5
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT ZONES 71..72/2..73.

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-121500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
700 AM PST THU DEC 12 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEVADA...THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE..THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM.  HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE EASTERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE AREA.  ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS.