Flood in Oklahoma, May 29 to 30, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
345 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

SEEING DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THAT AREA AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
FIRE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHUTTING OFF CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING AN EASTERLY WAVE INTO TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. WILL DISREGARD THIS FOR NOW AND KEEP TUESDAY DRY. RIDGE
SEEMS LIKELY TO HOLD FRONT AT BAY TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME POPS WEDNESDAY IN CASE THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO SAG INTO THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN BUT STILL
WITH JUNE DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
HOLD AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD MINIMUMS TO THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS FROM SUNDAY ON WITH SOME UPPER 60S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WHAT LITTLE WIND
THERE IS FRIDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT.

MAY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN AS LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING MOISTURE PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR FOG FORMATION.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY REASONABLE BUT WILL MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON READINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TUL  60  86  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
FSM  60  86  62  90 /  20  20  10  10
MLC  60  86  62  89 /  20  10  10  10
BVO  55  87  57  91 /  10  10  10  10
FYV  56  81  57  85 /  20  20  10  10
BYV  56  80  57  85 /  20  20  10  10
MIO  56  84  59  88 /  20  10  10  10
MKO  60  86  62  90 /  20  10  10  10
F10  60  86  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
HHW  60  86  62  89 /  20  20  10  10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1024 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 AM    PETTIGREW                 AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/29/02   MADISON                        LOCAL STREETS FLOODED.
                                          REPORTED BY POST OFFICE.

AH

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME
EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA