Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 1 to 2, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
235 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

WK SFC LOW CURRENTLY NR KJLN THIS AFTN...WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED OUT
NR THE KS OK BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES E THE CDFNT WL
START PUSHING TO THE SE THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURES ARE
BUILDING BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND XPCT THE FNT TO MAKE A SURGE
SOUTHWARD TNGT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS. VERY
WARM...RECORD BREAKING TEMPS THIS AFTN...KTUL HAS ALREADY BROKEN A
RECORD...AND KMLC AND KFYV ARENT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. ATMOS REMAINS
STRONGLY CAPPED...KEEPING A LID ON THE 3-4K J/KG OF CAPE THAT
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. LLVL MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND
MIXING OUT OVER WRN ZNS...AND DON/T FEEL THERE IS MUCH CHC FOR THE
CAP ERODING TNGT...DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA.

THE 12Z ETA DOES DEVELOP SOME QPF ALONG THE CDFNT LATE THIS EVENING
IN THE TERRAIN OF NW AR...BUT STILL FEEL THAT EVEN WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING NO TSRA WL DEVELOP. PLAN ON LEAVING THIS EVENING/S FCST DRY
ATTM. MINS TNGT WL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE
CDFNT WHEN IT BEGINS TO SURGE SWD.

TMRW...XPCT THERE TO BE SOME LOW CLD CVR IN THE CAA BEHIND THE
CDFNT...DON/T FEEL THAT THE LOW CLDS WL BE TOO EXTENSIVE ATTM...AS
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. BUT...THERE IS A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLD BEHIND THE CDFNT ALREADY...AND FEEL
THAT IT WL BE OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY TMRW. PLAN
ON KEEPING THINGS MCLDY...AS THERE WL BE PLENTY OF AC/CI ABOVE ANY
RESIDUAL LOW CLDS.

COOL CONDS TMRW NIGHT...WITH TEMPS L/M40S ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
PLENTY OF CI OVHD...SO DON/T SEE LOWS GETTING TOO FAR OUT OF
CONTROL. SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TMRW NGT...WITH SLY FLOW
RETURNING ON FRIDAY. A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...AND WITH MOISTURE RETURNING...HV
DECIDED TO INCLUDE A CHC TSRA FOR FRI/FRI NGT.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TDY...SHOWING A VERY
SPRINGLIKE WX PATN ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE SWLY FLOW EJECTS
SEVERAL WK DISTURBANCES INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE CWFA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PER THE ECMWF. THE AVN BRINGS
THE CDFNT THROUGH EARLIER...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS
SPRING...SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER. SOME CHC FOR TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE WK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HV GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED LOW POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PENDING BETTER TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AS THE
MOVE INTO THE AREA.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY OUT.

MANNING
FCSTID = 24

TUL   51  65  45  66 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   58  66  46  66 /  10  10   0  30
MLC   55  67  48  66 /  10  10   0  30
BVO   49  63  42  66 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   50  62  43  63 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   51  62  41  63 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   49  63  42  63 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   53  65  45  66 /  10  10   0  20
F10   54  66  45  66 /  10  10   0  20
HHW   59  69  51  67 /  10  10   0  30

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
820 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2002

...UPDATED FOR EVENING TRENDS...

A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...AND HAS
ENTERED NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND MOVED EAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.  LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD CONFINE THE SEVERE
THREAT TO THIS EVENING.