Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, May 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE WARM FRONT HAD SHIFTED NORTH OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA (CFA)
AT 1830Z. MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE
STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CFA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CFA WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR STORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SLOW AS
IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW
DEGREES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL EXIT THE SOUTHWEST FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
THE CFA AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
PRESENTLY WE EXPECT ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
LOUISVILLE BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.

.SDF...NONE.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020800-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS AN
AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEXINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.
...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020800-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS AN
AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEXINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.
...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
525 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    IRELAND                   IN   .75 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   DUBOIS                         REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
547 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    BIRDSEYE                  IN   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   DUBOIS                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0544 PM    DOOLITTLE MILLS           IN   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   PERRY                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
559 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0515 PM    HOLLAND                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/02   DUBOIUS                        REPORTED BY COUNTY
                                          DISPATCH.

PKW